Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures have been drifting lower since 3:00 AM and sideways to down since – 4:45 AM.
• The odds are for a sideways move within a 20-30 points range around the pre-open levels – watch for a break above 4387.75 and a break below 4368.50 for clarity
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 0.6% vs. 0.0% est.; prev. -0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders ( 1.7% vs. -0.8% est.; prev. 1.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • HPI ( 0.7% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 9:00 AM
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( -1.7% vs. -2.5% est.; prev. -1.1%) at 9:00 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence ( 103.9 est.; prev. 102.3) at 10:00 AM
  • New Home Sales ( 677k est.; prev. 683K ) at 10:00 AM
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index ( -12 est.; prev. -15 ) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4328.08, 4306.07, and 4297.54
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4345.08, 4359.53, and 4366.55
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4381.75, the high at 6:45 AM, and 4371.50, the low at 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4371.25, and the index closed at 4328.82 – a spread of about +42.50 points; the futures closed at 4370.25; the fair value is +1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +7.00, Dow down by -16, and NASDAQ up by +53.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo and Seoul closed lower
• European markets are mostly lower – Spain is higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.737, down -2.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.830%, down -7.7 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.668%, up +8.78 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.931, down from -0.816
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.093, down from +0.142
• VIX
  • At 14.31 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 15.53 on May 1
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, June 26, in mostly lower volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite closed lower. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed higher. NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened up but turned around in the first hour of trading and then mostly drifted lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The session started on a more upbeat note, but the three major indices all closed in negative territory. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq settled near their worst levels of the day while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed just below its flat line. […] The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 1.3% loss while the market-cap weighted S&P 500 fell 0.5%. […] Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with gains. Real estate (+2.2%) led the pack by a wide margin followed by energy (+1.7%) and materials (+1.0%). Meanwhile, the communication services (-1.9%), consumer discretionary (-1.3%), and information technology (-1.0%) sectors fell to the bottom of the pack, dragged down by their respective mega cap components. […] The 2-yr note yield fell one basis point to 4.74% and the 10-yr note yield fell two basis points to 3.72%. Nasdaq Composite: +27.4% YTD S&P 500: +12.7% YTD Russell 2000: +3.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +4.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.7% YTD […] Overseas: Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC +0.3% Asia: Nikkei -0.3%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai -1.5% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.31 @ 69.49 Nat Gas +0.08 @ 2.80 Gold +1.70 @ 1932.60 Silver +0.40 @ 22.83 Copper -0.02 @ 3.78