S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures have been moving within a range bounded by 4527.00 and 4517.75 since 3:15 AM.
The odds are for an up day with a good chance of sidewyas to down move from the pre-open levels around 4525.00 – watch for a break above 4527.00 or a break below 4517.75 for clarity
The major economic data reports due during the day:
PPI m/m ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. -0.3%) at 8:30 AM
Core PPI m/m ( 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims ( 237K vs. 251K est.; prev. 249K) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
6-Min: Up
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4481.18, 4466.00, and 4463.23
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4489.17, 4512.94, and 4521.16
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4527.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and 4517.5, the low at 8:36 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4509.25, and the index closed at 4472.16 – a spread of about +37.00 points; the futures closed at 4507.50; the fair value is +1.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +16.50, Dow by +48, and NASDAQ by +101.25
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher
European markets are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are higher
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are lower
Soft commodities are mixed
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 3.830, up +12.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 3.943%, up +14.0 basis points
The 2-year yield is at 4.750%, up +3.4 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.914, up from -1.006
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.107, up from +0.093
VIX
At 13.46 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 12.73 on June 22
Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on July 7 was a red candle that declined to near the middle of the previous week’s candle
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crisscrossing the %D above 80;
RSI-9 has declined to just below 70
The week was down -51.43 or -1.2%; the 5-week ATR is 96.24
A down week, second in the last five weeks, and fourth in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=4413.49, R1=4441.92, R2=4484.90; S1=4370.51, S2=4342.08; No pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A Doji candle with a longer upper shadow than the lower shadow that gapped up. Broke above a recent high of 4458.48, and the next resistance is at the 4520.00 level.
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D;
RSI-9 is near 70; above 8-DMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving up since 2:00 AM on Monday from a support level around 4410.00. Broke above a Symmetrical Triangle – the 61.8% extension target near 4512.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 4545.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4590.00
RSI-21 declined from 90 below 70 and is at around 75- a potential Bearish Divergence
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Trending up since 3:00 AM on July 10 – attempting to break above the July high
RSI-21 is near around 65 – a potential Bearish Divergence
At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 6:15 PM on July 12
The Bollinger Band is stable
Bias: Up
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, July 12, in higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The major indices gapped up at the open following a favorable CPI report. The indices retreated during the day and closed near or below their opens. All S&P sectors closed higher.
