Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. Futures have been moving sidewyas since 4:45 Pm on Friday within a range bounded by 4539.25 and 4528.00.
• The odds are for a down day to a sideways day – watch for a break above 4539.25 or a break below 4528.00 for clarity
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Empire State Manufacturing PMI ( 1.1% vs. -3.5% est.; prev. 6.6%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4481.18, 4495.82, 4489.36, and 4481.18
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4506.10, 4521.85, and 4527.76
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4539.25, the high at 4:15 AM, and 4528.00, the low at 7:15 PM on Sunday

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4539.25, and the index closed at 4505.42 – a spread of about +34.75 points; the futures closed at 4536.75; the fair value is +2.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50, Dow by -94, and NASDAQ by -10.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.819, unchanged two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.923%, up +6.8 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.746%, down -14.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.927, up from -1.076
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.104, up from +0.036
• VIX
  • At 13.96 @ 6:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 12.73 on June 22
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Friday, July 14, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The major indices opened higher and made the day’s highs in the first hour of trading. They then mostly traded lower.

For the week, the major indices closed higher in higher volume. The markets in Asia and Europe closed up too. The dollar index was down, the energy futures were mixed, and the commodities closed mostly higher. The US Treasury yields closed down. All S&P sectors closed up.