S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM. Futures broke below an up-sloping flag at 8:30 AM following the retail sales report. The 100% extension target is near the 4535.00 level.
The odds are for a down day to a sideways day – watch for a break above 4555.75 or a break below 4543.25 for clarity
The major economic data reports due during the day:
Retail Sales ( 0.2% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
Core Retail Sales ( 0.2% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
Industrial Production ( 0.0% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization ( 79.5% est.; prev. 79.6%) at 9:15 AM
Business Inventories ( 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 10:00 AM
NAHB Housing Market Index ( 56 est.; prev. 55) 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side-Down
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4514.14, 4504.90, and 4495.82
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4532.85, 4561.51, and 4593.45
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4555.75, the high at 4:30 AM, and 4543.25, the low at 10:15 AM on Monday
Pre-Open
On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4554.50, and the index closed at 4522.79 – a spread of about +31.75 points; the futures closed at 4553.75; the fair value is +0.75
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -3.50, Dow by -21, and NASDAQ by -17.00
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Mumbai closed up
European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland and STOXX 600 are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
INR/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are higher
Soft commodities are mostly higher
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 3.758, down -10.0 basis points two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 3.898%, up +2.8 basis points
The 2-year yield is at 4.742%, down -18.3 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.984, up from -1.067
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.140, up from +0.012
VIX
At 13.55 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; at/above the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 12.73 on June 22
Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on July 14 was a Bullish Engulfing candle closing at the highest level since the week of April 18, 2022
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crisscrossing the %D above 90;
RSI-9 has turned up above 70 but is still below the reading of the week ending on June 12, 2023.
The week was up +106.47 or +2.4%; the 5-week ATR is 111.50
An up week, third in the last five weeks, and seventh in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=4474.37, R1=4558.81, R2=4612.21; S1=4420.97, S2=4336.53; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A green candle with small upper and lower shadows breaking above a resistance level of around 4520.00, created by the high of April 21, 2022
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above the %D
RSI-9 is at 75; above 8-DMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Trending up since 2:00 AM on July 10 from a support level around 4410.00. Broke above a Symmetrical Triangle – the 100% extension target near 4545.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4590.00.
RSI-21 is at 55 and is making another Bearish Divergence
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Moving sideways since 4:00 PM on Monday after retreating a little from the high of 4565.75
RSI-21 is around 50
At/below EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sidewyas to up since 9:45 PM
The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 6:00 AM, with the price walking down the lower band.
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, July 17, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed down, and Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume. The major indices opened flat and then mostly drifted higher for the rest of the day.
