S&P Futures are little changed at 8:45 AM. Futures have been moving within a range bounded by 4592.75 and 4582.25 since 4:00 PM on Tuesday
The odds are for a sideways to a down day – watch for a break above 4592.75 or a break below 4582.25 for clarity
The major economic data reports due during the day:
Housing Starts ( 1.43M vs. 1.48M est.; prev. 1.56M) at 8:30 AM
Building Permits ( 1.44M vs. 1.49M est.; prev. 1.50M) at 8:30 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4551.96, 4538.31, and 4514.59
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4561.51, 4593.45, and 4603.07
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4592.75, the high at 3:00 AM, and 4582.25, the low at 6:00 PM on Tuesday
Pre-Open
On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4587.75, and the index closed at 4554.98 – a spread of about +32.75 points; the futures closed at 4587.75; the fair value is +0.0
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were a little higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were unchanged, Dow was up by +11, and NASDAQ up by +24.75
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong closed lower
European markets are mixed – Germany, Spain, and Itlay are lower; the UK, France, Switzerland, and STOXX 600 are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
INR/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are higher
Soft commodities are mostly higher
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 3.789, down -15.6 basis points two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 3.901%, down -4.3 basis points
The 2-year yield is at 4.764%, down -19.1 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.975, up from -1.010
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.112, up from -0.001
VIX
At 13.33 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 12.73 on June 22
Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on July 14 was a Bullish Engulfing candle closing at the highest level since the week of April 18, 2022
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crisscrossing the %D above 90;
RSI-9 has turned up above 70 but is still below the reading of the week ending on June 12, 2023.
The week was up +106.47 or +2.4%; the 5-week ATR is 111.50
An up week, third in the last five weeks, and seventh in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=4474.37, R1=4558.81, R2=4612.21; S1=4420.97, S2=4336.53; R1/R2/R3 pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows breaking above a resistance level of around 4520.00, created by the high of April 21, 2022
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D; above 90
RSI-9 is near 80; above 8-DMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Trending up since 2:00 AM on July 10 from a support level around 4410.00. Broke above a Symmetrical Triangle – the 100% extension target near 4545.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4590.00.
RSI-21 has declined to just above 70 from above 85
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Moving sideways since 2:30 PM on Tuesday around 4585.00
RSI-21 has declined to 60 from above 75
At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sidewyas to up since 9:30 PM
The Bollinger Band has been relatively stable
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, July 18, in higher volume. The major indices opened a bit lower but then started to move higher and continued their upward drift for the rest of the day. All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate – closed higher.
