Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM; broke below a Pennant at 8:30 AM – the next three down targets are near 4458.00, 4448.00, and 4430.00 respectively
• The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4487.00 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data report due during the day:
  • PPI m/m ( 0.3% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core PPI ( 0.3% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 71.4 est.; prev. 71.6) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 3.4) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4443.64, 4416.79, and 4408.46
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4457.92, 4484.88, and 4506.52
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4487.00, the high at 7:00 AM, and 4439.00, the low at 4:00 AM on July 11

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4486.25, and the index closed at 4468.83 – a spread of about +17.50 points; the futures closed at 4485.75; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower- at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -15.50, Dow by -55, and NASDAQ by -87.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai and Seoul closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.080, up +6.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.241%, up +18.3 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.838%, down -10.3 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.758, up from -0.929
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.161, up from +0.046
• VIX
  • At 16.05 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 18.14 on August 8; low = 12.73 on June 22
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, August 10, in mostly higher volume. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed down. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

The major indices gapped up at the open but turned down in the first hour of trading. They then for most of the day before recovering a bit in the final hour of trading. The end of the day’s bias was down.