S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM; moving down since 3:30 AM – down more than 15 points
The odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4449.25 for a change in sentiments
The major economic data report due during the day:
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI ( -1.2% vs. -1.5% est.; prev. -1.7%) at 9:00 AM
HPI ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est. prev. 0.7%) at 9:00 AM
CB Consumer Confidence ( 116.0 est.; prev. 117.0) at 10:00 AM
JOLTS Job Openings ( 9.49M est.; prev. 9.58M) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Down-Side
30-Min: Side
15-Min: Side-Down
6-Min: Side-Down
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4422.76, 4415.17, and 4401.67
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4439.56, 4458.30, and 4461.89
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4449.25, the high at 3:30 AM and 4423.50, the low at 2:15 PM on Monday
Pre-Open
On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4441.75, and the index closed at 4433.31 – a spread of about +8.50 points; the futures closed at 4442.25; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7:75, Dow by -60, and NASDAQ by -37.00
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed higher
European markets are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
INR/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are lower
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are mostly higher
Soft commodities are mostly higher
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 4.222, up +3.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 4.292%, up +1.1 basis points
The 2-year yield is at 5.010%, up +4.1 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.788, down from -0.785
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.070, down from +0.097
VIX
At 15.21 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 14.60 on August 10
Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on August 25 was a small green Haram with an upper shadow longer than the lower shadow and the real body.
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K turned up below the %D;
RSI-9 turned up above 50
The week was up +36.00 or +0.8%; the 5-week ATR is 107.72
Second up week in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=4406.77, R1=4457.24, R2=4508.78; S1=4355.23, S2=4304.76; No pivot levels were breached
Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
A small green Spinning Top candle just above the previous day’s high. A Head-and-Shoulder pattern continues to take shape and a break below 4335.00 will complete the pattern with the 61.8% extension target near 4170.00 and the 100% extension target near 4060.00
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D, near 80;
RSI-9 is just below 50; above 8-DMA
Below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Above the downtrend line from the July high
RSI-21 has declined to around 55 from above 65
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Moving sideways to down since 4:00 PM on Monday
RSI-21 has declined to below 50 from above 60
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 9:45 PM
The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 3:45 AM with the price walking down the lower band.
Bias: Side-Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, August 28, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The major indices gapped up at the open and then moved up and down, closed the gap, and then closed higher for the day. All but one S&P Sector – Utilities – closed higher.
