S&P Futures are a little higher at 9:00 AM; moving down since 8:30 AM – down more than 13 points from a high of 4541.25
The odds are for an up to a sideways day – watch for a break above 4541.25 or a break below 4523.00 for clarity
The major economic data report due during the day:
Core PCE Price Index ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Claims ( 228K vs. 236K est.; prev. 232K) at 8:30 AM
Personal Income ( 0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3% ) at 8:30 AM
Personal Spending ( 0.8% vs. 0.7% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
Chicago PMI ( 44.3 est.; prev. 42.8 ) at 9:45 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Side
6-Min: Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4505.88, 4493.59, and 4483.54
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4521.65, 4527.37, and 4540.34
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4541.25, the high at 8:30 AM and 4523.00, the low at 5:45 AM
Pre-Open
On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4524.00, and the index closed at 4514.87 – a spread of about +9.25 points; the futures closed at 4524.25; the fair value is -0.25
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +9:25, Dow by +163, and NASDAQ by +4.25
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Seoul closed lower; Tokyo, Syndey, and Singapore closed higher
European markets are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
Dollar index
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
INR/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are mixed
Precious metals are higher
Industrial metals are higher
Soft commodities are mostly higher
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 4.102, down -15.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
The 30-year is at 4.211%, down -15.0 basis points
The 2-year yield is at 4.876%, down -8.9 basis points;
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.774, down from -0.707
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.109, up from +0.103
VIX
At 13.75 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 12.74 on July 27
Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on August 25 was a small green Haram with an upper shadow longer than the lower shadow and the real body.
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K turned up below the %D;
RSI-9 turned up above 50
The week was up +36.00 or +0.8%; the 5-week ATR is 107.72
Second up week in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
The weekly pivot point=4406.77, R1=4457.24, R2=4508.78; S1=4355.23, S2=4304.76; No pivot levels were breached
Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
A relatively small green spinning top candle above the previous day’s large green candle. The potential Head-and-Shoulder pattern emerging since June 12 is likely to fizzle out.
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K turned down above the %D, above 90;
RSI-9 is above 60; above 8-DMA
Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving up since 10:00 AM on August 25; near a resistance level around 4545.00
RSI-21 is moving above 65; it made a few Bearish Divergences
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Moving sideways to up since 2:00 PM on Wednesday.
RSI-21 has been moving between 50 and 65 since 2:00 AM Wednesday
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 3:45 PM on Wednesday.
The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 7:15 AM
Bias: Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, August 30, in lower volume. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The major indices opened higher, declined, and advanced again before moving sideways in the last afternoon trading. All but two S&P sectors – Healthcare and Utilities – closed higher.
