Morning Notes – Monday, September 11, 2023

Sunil Sharma

1 year ago

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM; up more than 15 points since 4:45 AM and more than 27 since 9:30 PM
The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4526.75 and 4522.75 for a change of sentiments
No major economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up
15-Min: Up
6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4473.53, 4448.54, and 4444.38
Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4490.354496.01, and 4510.07
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4545.50, the high at 6:00 AM on September 6 and 4526.75, the low at 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4511.25, and the index closed at 4457.49 – a spread of about +53.75 points; the futures closed at 4511.25; the fair value is +0.0
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +24.00, Dow by +82, and NASDAQ by +126.50

Markets Around The World

Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong and Tokyo closed down
European markets are higher
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CAD INR/USD

Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are higher
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.292, up +5.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 4.378%, up +8.4 basis points
- The 2-year yield is at 4.953%, down -13.1 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.661, up from -0.845
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.086, up from +0.055
VIX
- At 14.16 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; at/below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 13.02 on September 1
- Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 8 was a red Haramin candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadows Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; RSI-9 has declined to around 55 from above 60 The week was down -58.28 or -1.3%; the 5-week ATR is 112.25 Third down week in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4467.41, R1=4504.37, R2=4551.24; S1=4420.54, S2=4383.58; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
*Daily*	A small candle with small upper and lower shadows Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D RSI-9 is below 50; below 8-DMA At/below 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
*2-Hour (E-mini futures)*	Moving up since 12:00 PM on September 7; near a resistance around the 4550.00 level RSI-21 is above 75 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
*30-Minute (E-mini futures)*	Trending up since 10:30 AM on September 7; RSI-21 has been moving above round 60 since 1:00 AM Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
*15-Minute (E-mini futures)*	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting up since 12:00 AM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting a little since 7:00 AM Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Friday, September 8, in mostly lower volume. The Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Russell 2000 closed down. The Transports traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened flat and rose for the first hour of trading. The indices drifted lower for the rest of the day.

For the week, the major indices closed down in lower volume. The markets in Asia and Europe mostly closed lower. The dollar index was up, energy futures were mixed, the metals were down, and the soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed up.