Morning Notes – Thursday, September 14, 2023

/ September 14, 2023

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; trading between 4539.25 and 4527.75 since 5:00 AM
  • The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4524.50 for a change of sentiments
  • The major economic data reports due during the day:
    • ECB Main Refinancing Rate ( 4.5% vs. 4.25% est.; prev. 4.25%) at 8:15 AM
    • ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 8:15 AM
    • Retail Sales ( 0.6% sv. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core Retail Sales ( 0.6% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 1.0%) at 8:30 AM
    • PPI ( 0.7% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core PPI ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3% ) at 8:30 Am
    • Unemployment Claims ( 220K vs. 226K est.; prev. 216K) at 8:30 AM
    • ECB Press Conference at 8:45 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4470.30, 4453.52, and 4448.38
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4479.39, 4489.96, and 4497.01
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4539.25, the high at 8:15 AM and 4524.50, the low at 4:15 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4518.00, and the index closed at 4467.44 – a spread of about +50.50 points; the futures closed at 4517.50; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +17.75, Dow by +118, and NASDAQ by +80.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are mostly higher – Germany is lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are mostly higher
    • Soft commodities are mixed
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.249, up +13.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 4.337%, up +10.9 basis points
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.991%, up +11.5 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.7412, up from -0.758
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.088, down from +0.110
  • VIX
    • At 13.37 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 13.02 on September 1
    • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 8 was a red Haramin candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadows
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D;
    • RSI-9 has declined to around 55 from above 60
  • The week was down -58.28 or -1.3%; the 5-week ATR  is 112.25
  • Third down week in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=4467.41, R1=4504.37, R2=4551.24; S1=4420.54, S2=4383.58; S1 pivot level was breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
  • A small Doji candle

    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D
    • RSI-9 is around 50; below 8-DMA
  • At/above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Forming a handle of a cup-with-handle pattern; a move above 4543.50 will complete the pattern; there is a resistance around the 4550.00 level.
    • RSI-21 has risen to around 70
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 2:30 AM on September 13;
    • RSI-21 has been moving up; above 60
    • Above EMA20, which is above  EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting up since 8:15 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 6:00 AM – the price first walked up along the upper band and then declined to the middle band.
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, September 13, in mixed volume. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and NYSE Composite closed down. The DJIA and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. Over the past few days, the major indices have been moving sideways.

The major indices opened flat and traded within a narrow range for the rest of the day. Four S&P sectors – Energy, Materials, Industrials, and Real Estate – closed down. The Financials were unchanged.

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