Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 8:30 AM, moving within a trading range between 4514.50 and 4487.00 since 1:15 PM on September 15, awaiting the FOMC’s rate decision tomorrow
• The odds are for a sidewyas day – watch for a break above 4514.50 or a break below 4487.00 for clarity
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Building Permits (1.54M vs. 1.44M est.; prev. 1,44M) at 8:30 AM
  • Housing Starts ( 1.28M vs. 1.44M est.; prev. 1.45 M) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4448.86, 4442.11, and 4430.46
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4466.36, 4486.35, and 4497.98
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4514.50, the high at 12:30 PM on Monday and a break below 4487.00, the low at 7:45 AM on Monday

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4501.00, and the index closed at 4453.53 – a spread of about +47.50 points; the futures closed at 4501.50; the fair value is -0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were a little higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00, Dow by +19, and NASDAQ by +5.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Hong Kong closed up, and Mumbai was closed
• European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Switzerland are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.319, up +5.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.396%, up +2.0 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 5.0410%, up +8.3 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.722, down from -0.690
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.077, down from +0.108
• VIX
  • At 14.00 @ 7:45 AM; unchanged from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 12.68 on September 15
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, September 18, in lower volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower.

The major indices opened lower, moved higher, made the day’s high by mid-day,  and then drifted lower until the close. The day’s price range was small.