Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are little changed at 8:30 AM, moving within a trading range between 4514.50 and 4487.00 since 1:15 PM on September 15, awaiting the FOMC’s rate decision tomorrow
  • The odds are for a sidewyas day – watch for a break above 4514.50 or a break below 4487.00 for clarity
  • The major economic data reports due during the day:
    • Building Permits (1.54M vs. 1.44M est.; prev. 1,44M) at 8:30 AM
    • Housing Starts ( 1.28M vs. 1.44M est.; prev. 1.45 M) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4448.86, 4442.11, and 4430.46
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4466.36, 4486.35, and 4497.98
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4514.50, the high at 12:30 PM on Monday and a break below 4487.00, the low at 7:45 AM on Monday

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4501.00, and the index closed at 4453.53 – a spread of about +47.50 points; the futures closed at 4501.50; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were a little higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.00, Dow by +19, and NASDAQ by +5.00

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Hong Kong closed up, and Mumbai was closed
  • European markets are mostly higher – Germany and Switzerland are lower
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher
    • Precious metals are mixed
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.319, up +5.1 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 4.396%, up +2.0 basis points
    • The 2-year yield is at 5.0410%, up +8.3 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.722, down from -0.690
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.077, down from +0.108
  • VIX
    • At 14.00 @ 7:45 AM; unchanged from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 18.88 on August 18; low = 12.68 on September 15
    • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on September 15 was a red candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow closing a little below the previous week’s red candle but still within the real body of the large green candle of the week ending of September 1
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D;
    • RSI-9 is around 55
  • The week was down -7.17 or -0.2%; the 5-week ATR  is 108.53
  • Third down week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=4469.84, R1=4492.47, R2=4534.62; S1=4427.69, S2=4405.06; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily
  • A small Doji-like candle near the close of the previous day’s relatively large red candle
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D
    • RSI-9 is around 45; below 8-DMA
  • Below 20-day EMA; at/above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Declining since 2:00 AM on September 15 after breaching a resistance level briefly, moving sidewyas within a trading range between 4560.00 and 4430.
    • RSI-21 has risen to 50 from below 25
    • At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 1:30 PM on September 15
    • RSI-21 has risen to above 50 from 20 on Friday
    • Above EMA20, which is at/below  EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 7:00 PM on Sunday.
  • The Bollinger Band has been contracting  since 7:00 AM
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday, September 18, in lower volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower.

The major indices opened lower, moved higher, made the day’s high by mid-day,  and then drifted lower until the close. The day’s price range was small.

Exit mobile version