Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 9:00 AM – moving down since 8:00 AM after the release of the CPI data; down more than 20 points from the high of 4430.50
• The odds are for a down day with a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open level around 4410.00 – watch for a break above 4430.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • CPI ( 0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 209K vs. 211K est.; prev. 209K) at 8:30 AM

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4345.34, 4329.15, and 4312.48
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4385.46, 4401.38, and 4425.95
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4430.50, the high at 8:00 AM, and 4407.75, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4408.75, and the index closed at 4376.95 – a spread of about +31.75 points; the futures closed at 4409.75; the fair value is -1.0
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.25, Dow up by +34, and NASDAQ down by -2.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai was down
• European markets are mostly higher – France and Switzerland are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.616, down -1.2 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.746%, up +1.4 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 5.003%, down -13.9 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.387, up from -0.516
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.130, up from +0.106
• VIX
  • At 15.97 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 20.88 on October 4; low = 15.83 on September 129
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, October 11, in mostly lower volume. Russell 2000 closed down, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume.

The indices opened higher but moved lower early afternoon when they turned around and traded higher until the close. Dow Jones Transportation Average broke above the downtrend line from July 31, 2023.

All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Staples, Energy, and Healthcare – closed higher. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures were down, the precious metals were up, and hard and soft commodities closed mixed.