Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving up since 2:45 AM after a sideways drift that lasted a few hours
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4274.250 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 217K vs. 210K est.; prev. 212K) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Nonfarm Productivity ( 4.7% vs. 4.2% est.; prev. 3.5%) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Labor Costs ( -0.8% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 2.2%) at 8:30 AM
  • Factory Orders ( 2.2% est.; prev. 1.2%) at 10:00 AM

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4245.64, 4224.21, and 4202.02
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4283.79, 4290.04, and 4302.23
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4298.00, the high at 8:45 AM and 4274.25, the low at 6:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4256.50, and the index closed at 4237.86 – a spread of about +18.75 points; the futures closed at 4256.00; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +37.50, Dow by +223, and NASDAQ by +191.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed lower
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are mixed
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.630, down -27.4 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.806%, down -18.9 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.958%, down -9.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.328, up from -0.146
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.176, down from +0.091
• VIX
  • At 16.32 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 22.07 on October 27; low = 15.44 on October 12; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, October 26, in higher volume. The Russell 2000 closed in higher.

The major indices opened lower and traded down until the afternoon, when they bounced for an hour or so before declining and closing near the day’s low.

All but three S&P sectors – Materials, Utilities, and Real Estate – closed down. Crude oil closed down, gold closed up, and the US Treasury Yields closed down.