Morning Notes – Tuesday, November 28, 2023

/ November 28, 2023

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM – moving sideways to 2:00 AM on Monday
  • The odds are for a down day – watch for a break above 4560.50 for a change of sentiments.
  • The major economic data reports due during the day:
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (3.9% vs. 4.0% est.; prev. 2.1%) at 9:00 AM
    • HPI (0.6% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 9:00 AM.
    • CB Consumer Confidence (101.0 est.; prev. 102.6) at 10:00 AM
    • Richmond Manufacturing PMI (1 est.; prev. 3) at 10:00 AM
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4545.78, 4526.51, and 4508.22.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4560.52, 4568.43, and 4582.35.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4560.50, the high at 5:00 AM and 4547.00, the low at 8:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4560.25, and the index closed at 4550.43 – a spread of about +10.25 points; the futures closed at 4561.00; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -8.25, Dow by -21, and NASDAQ by -26.75

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed higher; Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore closed lower.
  • European markets are mostly lower – Spain is higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are lower.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.392, down -24.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.543%, down -20.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.855%, down -19.0 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.463, down from -0.413
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.151, up from +0.112
  • VIX
    • At 12.87 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 15.57 on November 9; low = 12.64 on November 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 24 was a green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D and near 100
    • RSI-9 is above 60.
  • The week was up +45.32 or +1.0%; the 5-week ATR is 134.2
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and sixth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4546.73, R1=4581.73, R2=4604.11; S1=4523.66, S2=4487.97; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A red spinning top candle, 1.2% below a resistance level around 4607.07
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target is 4597.07, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has crossed below %D from above 90.
    • RSI-9 has turned down to 75; above 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways at the top around 4560.00, since 12:00 PM on November 20
    • RSI-21 has been drifting down in a zigzag move; below 50.
    • At/below EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting Sideways to down since 5:00 Am on November 22.
    • RSI-21 has declined to below 40.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down to sideways since 4:45 PM on Monday.
  • The Bollinger Band has expanded since 2:00 AM
  • Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed down on Monday, November 27, in higher volume. Since last Monday, November 20, the indices have mostly moved sideways.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ Composite are off by less than 1.5% from the 2023 highs levels. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average are off by approximately 10.00% from their 2023 highs, whereas broader indices – NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Marlet Index – are off by around 3.00% from their respective highs.

All but three S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Real Estate – closed down. Crude oil closed down, gold closed up, copper closed down, and the US Treasury Yields closed down.

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