Morning Notes – Wednesday, November 29, 2023

/ November 29, 2023

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM – moving up since 3:15 AM – up by more than 20 points to near 4590.00
  • The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4575.25 for a change of sentiments.
  • The major economic data reports due during the day:
    • Prelim GDP (5.2% vs. 5.0% est.; prev. 4.9%) at 8:30 AM
    • Prelim GDP Prices (3.6% vs. 3.5% est.; prev. 3.5%) at 8:30 AM.
    • Goods Trade Balance (-89.8B vs. -86.4B est.; prev. -86.8) at 8:30 AM
    • Prelim Wholesale Inventories (-0.2% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
    • Beige Book at 2:00 PM
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4568.14, 4543.90, and 4540.51.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4583.35, 4594.22, and 4607.07.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4593.50, the high at 8:00 PM on August 1 and 4575.25, the low at 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4563.25, and the index closed at 4554.89 – a spread of about +8.50 points; the futures closed at 4563.00; the fair value is +0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +23.00, Dow by +122, and NASDAQ by +105.25

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Seoul closed lower; Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are lower.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.336, down -10.5 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.524%, down -9.7 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.734%, down -10.8 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.398, up from -0.401
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.188, up from +0.180
  • VIX
    • At 12.61 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; at/below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 15.57 on November 9; low = 12.64 on November 27; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 24 was a green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D and near 100
    • RSI-9 is above 60.
  • The week was up +45.32 or +1.0%; the 5-week ATR is 134.2
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and sixth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4546.73, R1=4581.73, R2=4604.11; S1=4523.66, S2=4487.97; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A relatively small green candle with a small lower shadow and an upper shadow equal to the real body. Just above a support level, 4541.25 – the high of September 2023, which was a resistance before it was broken to the upside – and 1.2% below a resistance level around 4607.07, the high of 2023.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target is 4597.07, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; above 90.
    • RSI-9 is just above 75; above 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to up at the top around 4580.00, since 12:00 PM on November 20
    • RSI-21 has moved above 70.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving up since 1:00 PM on November 28.
    • RSI-21 has moved to near 70.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 6:30 PM on Tuesday.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 3:30 AM
  • Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, November 28, in mostly higher volume. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and NYSE Composite closed higher. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed down.

Since last Monday, November 20, the indices have mostly moved sideways. All but three S&P sectors – Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare – closed up. Crude oil, gold, and copper closed up and the US Treasury Yields closed down.

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