Morning Notes – Thursday, November 30, 2023

/ November 30, 2023

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – declined more than ten points from a high of 4578.25 at 8:45 AM after rising more than twenty points from 3:45 AM
  • The odds are for a sideways to a down with elevated volatility – watch for a break above 4578.25 and a break below 4564.00 for clarity.
  • The major economic data reports due during the day:
    • Core PCE Price Index (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Claims (218K vs. 219K est.; prev. 211K) at 8:30 AM.
    • Personal Income (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
    • Personal; Spending (0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 8:30 AM
    • Chicago PMI (46.0 est.; prev. 44.0) at 9:45 AM
    • Pending Home Sales (-1.9% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 10:00 AM
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Up
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4547.15, 4540.51, and 4525.51.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4569.06, 4587.64, and 4594.22.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4578.25, the high at 8:45 AM and 4564.00, the low at 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4560.00, and the index closed at 4550.58 – a spread of about +9.50 points; the futures closed at 4559.25; the fair value is +0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +8.50, Dow by +192, and NASDAQ by +17.75

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East mostly closed up – Singapore closed down.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are mostly higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.328, down -20.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.491%, down -20.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.830%, down -10.1 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.502, down from -0.396
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.163, up from +0.157
  • VIX
    • At 13.07 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 15.57 on November 9; low = 12.64 on November 27; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on November 24 was a green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D and near 100
    • RSI-9 is above 60.
  • The week was up +45.32 or +1.0%; the 5-week ATR is 134.2
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and sixth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=4546.73, R1=4581.73, R2=4604.11; S1=4523.66, S2=4487.97; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no lower shadow and an upper shadow half the size of the real body. Just above a support level, 4541.25 – the high of September 2023, which was a resistance before it was broken to the upside – and 1.2% below a resistance level around 4607.07, the high of 2023.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target is 4597.07, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D; down to near60 from above 90.
    • RSI-9 has declined to just above 70; below 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways at the top between 4600.00 and 4550.00 since 12:00 PM on November 20
    • RSI-21 has declined to just below 50from above 70.
    • At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Drifting up since 3:30 PM on Wednesday – almost retraced to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement target of the decline earlier in the day form a high of 4597.00 to 4555.50.
    • RSI-21 is around 50.
    • At/below EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 9:45 PM on Wednesday.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 3:15 AM, with the price first walking to upper band and then declining to the middle band.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, November 29, in higher volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed down. The indices gapped up at the open but then started to retreat after the first hour of trading filling their respective gaps.

Most indices have traded in a narrow range for the past few days. Half of the S&P sectors closed up and the other half closed down. Crude oil and gold closed up, copper closed down, and the US Treasury Yields closed down.

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