S&P Futures are higher at 8:15 AM – moving within a trading range between 4890.50 and 4877.50 since 7:45 PM on Sunday.
The odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for a break above 4890.50 or a break below 4877.50 for clarity.
No major economic data report is due during the day:
Weekly: Up
Daily: Uptrend
120-Min: Up
30-Min: Up-Side
15-Min: Up-Side
6-Min: Side
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4842.07, 4829.19, and4798.85.
Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4859.30, 4878.78, and 4915.50.
The key levels for E-mini futures are 4890.50, the high at 7:30 AM, and 4877.50, the low at 2:00 AM.
Pre-Open
On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2024) closed at 4870.75, and the index closed at 4839.81 – a spread of about +31.00 points; the futures closed at 4869.25; the fair value is -0.25.
Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +18.75, Dow by +87, and NASDAQ by +119.00
Markets Around the World
Markets in the East mostly closed mostly lower \ – Tokyo and Sydney closed lower; Mumbai was closed for trading.
European markets are mostly higher – Italy is lower.
Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
INR/USD
Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
Energy futures are lower.
Precious metals are lower.
Industrial metals are lower.
Soft commodities are mixed.
Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
The 10-year yield closed at 4.146, up +10.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
The 30-year is at 4.353%, up +15.3 basis points.
The 2-year yield is at 4.376%, down -2.8 basis points.
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.230, up from -0.362
The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.207, up from +0.158
VIX
At 13.68 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
Recent high = 15.40 on December 17; low = 12.35 on January 11; Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly:
The week ending on January 19 was a green candle closing at the all-time high.
Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target 4597.07 is achieved, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D.
RSI-9 is above 70.
The week was up +55.98 or +1.2%; the 5-week ATR is 88.33.
Fourth up week in the last five weeks and ninth in the previous ten weeks
The weekly pivot point=4798.90, R1=4882.98, R2=4926.15; S1=4755.73, S2=4671.65; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached
Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
Uptrend
Daily
A green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows.
Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11, forming since December 14, 2023 – the 61.8% extension target is near 4876.00, the 100% extension target is near 4922.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4997.00.
Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D.
RSI-9 moved to just below 70; above 8-day EMA.
Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
Moving above a Horizontal Trading Channel between 4841.25 and 4702.00 after breaking above in on Friday – the 61.8% extension target near 4927.00, the 100% extension target near 4981.00, and the 161.8% extension target near 5067.00.
RSI-21 has bounced up above 80 from below 30.
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
Drifting sideways to up since 7:30 PM on Sunday around 4885.00 level.
RSI-21 has been moving around 75.
Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 9:15 PM.
The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 4:30 AM with the price declining from the upper band to the middle band.
Bias: Up-Side
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, January 19 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The major indices gapped up at the open and then traded higher for the rest of the day. All S&P sectors except Consumer Staples and Utilities closed higher.
For the week, most major US indices closed higher in mixed volume. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed lower. The markets in Europe and Asia mostly closed lower. The dollar index closed up, the energy futures closed mixed, the precious metals were down, and most industrial metals were down too. The soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury Yields ended higher for the week.
