Morning Notes – Friday, March 8, 2024

/ March 8, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures moved higher at 8:30 AM following the release of the NFP report.
  • The odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for a break above 5237.25 and a break below 5206.75 – for more clarity.
  • The major economic data report due during the day:
    • Non-Farm Employment Change (198K est.; prev. 353K) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Rate (3.7% est.; prev. 3.7%) at 8:30 AM
    • Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5144.86, 5128.21, and 5093.16.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5172.58, 5187.81, and 5209.99.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5237.25, the high at 3:45 AM, and 5206.75, the low at 4:15 PM on Thursday.

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5222.75, and the index closed at 5157.36 – a spread of about +65.50 points; the futures closed at 5218.00; the fair value is +4.75.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25, Dow down by -60, and NASDAQ by up +11.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore closed down. Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed up.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • NZD/USD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.104, down -22.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.240%, down -25.2 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.560%, down -11.0 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.456, down from -0.345.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.136, down from +0.167.
  • VIX
    • At 14.17 @ 8:30 AM; below from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 16.12 on February 21; low = 13.08 on March 1; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 1 was a small green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow closing at the all-time high.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D near 100.
    • RSI-9 is above 80.
  • The week was up +48.28 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR is 123.66.
  • Fourth up week in the last five weeks and eight in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5111.57, R1=5165.84, R2=5194.61; S1=5082.80, S2=5028.53; No pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A green candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow that gapped up from previous day’s Doji candle.
  • Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11 on January 19 – the 261.8% extension target around 5117.00 is achieved.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D.
    • RSI-9 is above 65; above 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving higher within an upsloping Linear Regression channel of one StdDev over the past twenty days – price is in the upper band of the channel.
    • RSI-21 has declined to below 55 from above 80 after making Bearish Divergence.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 10:30 AM on Thursday between 5237.25 and 5206.75.
    • RSI-21 has declined to below 50 from above 75 and after making Bearish Divergence.
    • Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20,
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 6:15 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 6:15 AM with the price walking down the lower band.
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, March 7 in lower volume. Major indices opened higher and then traded higher for most of the day before flattening in late trading. S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-time closing and intraday highs. NASDAQ Composite made all-time intraday high but closed a bit lower than its all-time high.

All but one S&P sector – Financials – closed higher. The dollar index and energy futures closed down, the precious metals and copper closed higher, and the soft commodities closed mostly higher. The US Treasury Yields closed mixed.

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