Morning Notes – Tuesday, March 12, 2024

/ March 12, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 8:30 AM. The futures first dropped 20 points following the CPI data release at 8:30 AM only to bounce up by more than 40 points within minutes.
  • The odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for a break below 5200.00 for s change of sentiments.
  • The major economic data report due during the day:
    • CPI m/m (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
    • Core CPI m/m (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
    • CPI y/y (3.2% vs. 3.1% est.; prev. 3.1%) at 8:30 AM
  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5124.66, 5108.60, and 5091.14.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5150.53, 5158.91, and 5182.38,
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5223.25, the high at 12:00 PM on March 8, and 5177.00, the low at 8:30 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5185.75, and the index closed at 5117.94 – a spread of about +67.75 points; the futures closed at 5185.75; the fair value is 0.0.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +13.00, Dow by +8, and NASDAQ by +80.50.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Tokyo closed down.
  • European markets are mostly higher – France is lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are higher.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.089, down -21.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.248%, down -17.0 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.561%, down -16.8 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.472, down from -0.430.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.159, down from +0.119.
  • VIX
    • At 15.15 @ 8:00 AM; below from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 16.12 on February 21; low = 13.08 on March 1; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 8 was a small Doji candle at the all-time highs.
  • Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crossed below the %D from near 100.
    • RSI-9 is above 80.
  • The week was down -13.39 or -0.3%; the 5-week ATR is 124.12.
  • Second down week in the last five weeks and third in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5123.26, R1=5189.69, R2=5255.70; S1=5057.25, S2=4990.82; R1S1 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small green candle with almost no upper shadow and lower shadow more than three times the real body following a Bearish Engulfing at the all-time highs.
  • Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11 on January 19 – the 261.8% extension target around 5117.00 is achieved.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D.
    • RSI-9 is fallen below 60; below 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving higher within an upsloping Linear Regression channel of one StdDev over the past twenty days – price has declined just below the middle band of the channel.
    • RSI-21 has bounced above 50 after falling to below 30 on Monday morning.
    • At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 6:00 PM on Monday between 5208.00 and 5191.00.
    • RSI-21 is around 50.
    • At/below EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50,
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 4:00 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:00 AM with the price first moved down the lower band and then bounced up to the upper band following the release of CPI report at 8:30 AM.
  • Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Monday, March 11 in lower volume. Major indices opened lower and moved lower in the first hour of trading before turning around and drifting higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher.

S&P sectors closed mixed – six lower and fiver lower. The dollar index closed higher, energy futures closed down, the precious metals and industrial metals closed higher, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The bonds closed down, i.,e., the US Treasury Yields closed higher.

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