Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM – moving down since 4:15 AM – down more than 30 points
• The odds are for a down day – watch for a break below 5640.25 for a change of sentiments.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (6.5% vs. 6.2% est.; prev. 6.8%) at 9:00 AM
  • HPI (-0.1% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 9:00 AM
  • CB Consumer Confidence (100.9 est.; prev. 100.3) at 10:00 AM
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index (-14 est.; prev. -17) at 10:00 AM

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5602.34, 5585.16, and 5560.95.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5619.68, 5627.56, and 5643.14.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5640.25, the high at 7:45 AM and 5603.00, the low at 12:00 PM on August 23.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5637.25, and the index closed at 5616.84 – a spread of about +20.50 points; the futures closed at 5637.00; the fair value is +0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -11.50, Dow by -77, and NASDAQ by -44.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, and Seoul closed down; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.802, down -15.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.108%, down -14.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.944%, down -2.4 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.142, down from -0.014.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.306, down from 0.294.
• VIX
  • At 16.54 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 18.06 on August 22 low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, August 26 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher at 100.74, the energy futures closed mixed, the metals – precious and industrial – closed up and so did most of the soft commodities. The US Treasury yields closed higher as the bonds slid.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a mixed showing on the first day of the new week. The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and Russell 2000 (-0.04%) settled with losses while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) closed at a new record high.

• S&P 500: +18.1% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +17.8% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +10.9% YTD
• Russell 2000: +9.4% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• July Durable Goods – ex transportation -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.5%, July Durable Orders 9.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior was revised to -6.9% from -6.6%

Overseas:

• Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE market closed, CAC -0.2%
• Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Shanghai +0.0%

Commodities:

• Crude Oil +2.55 @ 77.42
• Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.13
• Gold +7.90 @ 2554.90
• Silver +0.18 @ 29.99
• Copper +0.01 @ 4.22