Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM – moving down since 4:15 AM – down more than 30 points
  • The odds are for a down day – watch for a break below 5640.25 for a change of sentiments.
  • The economic data due during the day:
    • S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (6.5% vs. 6.2% est.; prev. 6.8%) at 9:00 AM
    • HPI (-0.1% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 9:00 AM
    • CB Consumer Confidence (100.9 est.; prev. 100.3) at 10:00 AM
    • Richmond Manufacturing Index (-14 est.; prev. -17) at 10:00 AM
  • Weekly: Uptrend Resumed
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up-Side
  • 30-Min: Side-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-Down
  • 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5602.34, 5585.16, and 5560.95.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5619.68, 5627.56, and 5643.14.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5640.25, the high at 7:45 AM and 5603.00, the low at 12:00 PM on August 23.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5637.25, and the index closed at 5616.84 – a spread of about +20.50 points; the futures closed at 5637.00; the fair value is +0.25.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -11.50, Dow by -77, and NASDAQ by -44.00.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Sydney, and Seoul closed down; Hong Kong, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Singapore closed up.
  • European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are lower.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are higher.
    • Soft commodities are mixed.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.802, down -15.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.108%, down -14.0 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.944%, down -2.4 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.142, down from -0.014.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.306, down from 0.294.
  • VIX
    • At 16.54 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 18.06 on August 22 low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on August 23 was a relatively small green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows closing just 0.6% below the all-time high of 5669.67.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 70.
  • The week was up 80.36 or 1.4%; the 5-week ATR is 205.60.
  • Second up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5609.52, R1=5668.31, R2=5702.00; S1=5575.83, S2=5517.04; R1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A red spinning top candle at the highest level since July 16, 2024, all-time high.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; Bearish Divergence.
    • RSI-9 is just below 65 and the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Uptrend since 6:00 PM on August 7. Broke above a down-trending regression channel that started at 4:00 PM on July 16. Moving sideways to up since 12:00 PM on August 19 after breaking just above a resistance level of 5600.75, the high at 8:00 AM on August 1.
    • RSI-21 is just above 40.
    • At/below EMA20, which is at/above the EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Trading within a range between 5646.25 and 5619.75 since 10:45 AM on August 265.
    • RSI-21 is below 50.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 4:30 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 4:30 AM with the price walking down the lower band.
  • Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, August 26 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite closed higher.

The dollar index closed higher at 100.74, the energy futures closed mixed, the metals – precious and industrial – closed up and so did most of the soft commodities. The US Treasury yields closed higher as the bonds slid.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a mixed showing on the first day of the new week. The S&P 500 (-0.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and Russell 2000 (-0.04%) settled with losses while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) closed at a new record high.

[[[.]
  • S&P 500: +18.1% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +17.8% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +10.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +9.4% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +9.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • July Durable Goods – ex transportation -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.5%, July Durable Orders 9.9% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior was revised to -6.9% from -6.6%
[…]

Overseas:

  • Europe: DAX -0.1%, FTSE market closed, CAC -0.2%
  • Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng +1.1%, Shanghai +0.0%

Commodities:

  • Crude Oil +2.55 @ 77.42
  • Nat Gas -0.05 @ 2.13
  • Gold +7.90 @ 2554.90
  • Silver +0.18 @ 29.99
  • Copper +0.01 @ 4.22
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