Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving sideways since 5:15 AM within a narrow range around 5765.00.
• Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5770.75 or a break below 5742.50 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Trade Balance (-70.4B vs. -70.1B est.; prev. -78.9.0) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5686.85, 5677.37, and 5615.08,
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5715.35, 5737.78, and 5735.21.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5770.75, the high at 7:30 AM and 5742.50, the low at 3:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5747.00, and the index closed at 5695.94 – a spread of about +51.00 points; the futures closed at 5744.75; the fair value is +2.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +20.50, Dow by +55, and NASDAQ by +69.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly down – Mumbai was up.
• European markets are mostly lower – Italy and Switzerland are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mixed.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.033, up +28.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.309%, up +21.5 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.004%, up +40.9 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.029, down from 0.156.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.276, down from 0.343.
• VIX
  • At 21.99 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.90 on September 26; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-to-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower Monday, October 7 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened lower and drifted lower before accelerating near the end. Most major indices have alternatively closed up and down for many days. 

All but one S&P sector – Energy – closed down. The dollar index closed higher at 102.30. The energy futures closed mixed but the metals – precious and industrial – futures closed down. The soft commodities closed mixed. The US treasury yields were up, and bonds down.

From Briefing.com

Today’s trade featured a negative bias through the entire session. The major indices were trading slightly lower for most of the day before selling picked up in the afternoon. The S&P 500 ultimately settled 1.0% lower, the Nasdaq Composite closed 1.2% below its prior close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 settled with a 0.8% loss.

Rising market rates also contributed to the selling in equities. The 10-yr yield settled five basis points higher at 4.03% and the 2-yr yield settled seven basis points higher at 4.00%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +19.4% YTD
• S&P 500: +19.4% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.3% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +11.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.2% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Consumer credit increased by $8.9 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus $12.7 billion) after increasing a revised $26.7 billion (from $25.5 billion) in July.