Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a bit lower at 9:00 AM. Forming a cup-with-handle pattern.
• Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break below 5782.75 for a change in sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5744.06, 5726.56, and 5714.456.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5757.60, 5765.14, and 5784.14.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5806.75, the high at 3:45 PM on Monday and 5782.75, the low at 3:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5800.75, and the index closed at 5751.13 – a spread of about +49.50 points; the futures closed at 5800.50; the fair value is +0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were a bit lower – at 9:00AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -3.50, Dow by -27, and NASDAQ by -28.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Mumbai closed down. Sydney and Tokyo closed up. Seoul was closed.
• European markets are mostly higher – Spain and Italy are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.017, up +28.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.296%, up +21.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.967%, up +41.9 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.050, down from 0.185.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.279, down from 0.353.
• VIX
  • At 21.46 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.90 on September 26; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-to-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher Tuesday, October 8 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in lower volume. The major indices opened higher and moved higher with a brief pullback midday. Most major indices have alternatively closed up and down for several days. 

All but two S&P sectors – Energy and Materials – closed down. The dollar index closed higher at 102.30. The energy and metals – precious and industrial – futures closed down. The soft commodities closed mixed. The US treasury yields were down, and bonds were a bit up.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed on a higher note on buy-the-dip interest after a soft start to the week. The Russell 2000 gained 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.3% higher, the S&P 500 climbed 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite settled 1.5% higher.

The 10-yr yield settled one basis higher at 4.03% and the 2-yr yield settled two basis points lower at 3.98%. On a related note, today’s $58 billion 3-yr note sale met weak demand. 

• Nasdaq Composite: +21.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +20.6% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.7% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +11.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.3% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• September NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.5; Prior 91.2
• August Trade Balance -$70.4 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$71.3 bln); Prior was revised to -$78.9 bln from -$78.8 bln