Morning Notes – Tuesday, October 15, 2024

/ October 15, 2024

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM. Moving sideways since 2:00 PM on Monday around 5910.00 levels.
  • Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5918.50 or a break below 5904.75 for clarity.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • Empire State Manufacturing Index (-11.9 vs. 3.4 est.; prev. 11.5) at 8:30 AM..
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5853.04, 5843.28, and 5829.57.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5871.41, 5877.65, and 5895.45.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5918.50, the high at 3:45 PM on Monday and 5904.75, the low at 2:00 PM on Monday.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5009.25, and the index closed at 5859.85 – a spread of about +49.50 points; the futures closed at 5908.25; the fair value is +1.00.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:15AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +0.50, Dow down by -12, and NASDAQ down by -2.50.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore closed down. Sydney, Tokyo, and Seoul closed up.
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, Spain and Switzerland are higher; the UK, France, and STOXX 600 are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are mixed.
    • Industrial metals are mixed.
    • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.105, up +31.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.414%, up +29.1 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.966%, up +31.9 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.139, down from 0.140.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.309, down from 0.336.
  • VIX
    • At 19.68 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 23.14 on October 8; low = 14.90 on September 26; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-to-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on October 11 was a green candle at all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D and near 100.
    • RSI-9 is near 70 with a potential for a Bearish Divergence.
  • The week was up 63.96 or 1.1%; the 5-week ATR is 130.63.
  • Fifth up week in the last five weeks and eight in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5774.67, R1=5862.49, R2=5909.95; S1=5727.21, S2=5639.39; R1/R2/S1 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A green candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow at all-time closing and intraday highs.
  • On September 19, the cash index broke above a resistance level, the high of August 30. The 61.8% extension target around 5800.00 is achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5900.00 and the 161.8% extension target is around 6053.00.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K above the %D.
    • RSI-9 is above 70 and above the 8-day EMA.
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 2:00 PM on Monday at around 5915.00 level.  Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel last week. The futures achieved the 161.8% extension target of around 5905.00.
    • RSI-21 has declined to 70 from near 90.
    • Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways to down since 12:00 PM on Monday.
    • RSI-21 is below 60.
    • At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 2:30 PM on Monday.
  • The Bollinger Band is narrow.
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher Monday, October 14 in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and FT Wilshire 500 Market Index closed at time highs.  Most major indices gapped at the open and then trade higher for most of the day.

All but one S&P sectors – Energy – closed higher. The dollar index closed higher at 103.03. The energy and precious metals closed down; the industrial and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US treasury yields were up, and bonds down.

From Briefing.com

Today’s session featured a broad rally on below-average volume at the NYSE. The S&P 500 (+0.8%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) extended further into record territory and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) closed about 170 points below its all-time high. 

[…]

The Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day and there was no US economic data of note today.

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