Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a little lower at 9:00 AM. Moving sideways to down between 6068.50 and 6050.00.
• Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6068.50 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • JOLTS Job Openings (7.51M est.; prev. 7.44M) at 10:00 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6035.33, 6032.38, and 6003.98.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6053.58, 6063.60, and 6073.63.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6067.25, the high at 8:45 AM and 6050.00, the low at 10:45 AM on Monday.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6062.00, and the index closed at 6047.15 – a spread of about +14.75 points; the futures closed at 6061.75; the fair value is +0.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -3.25, Dow by -10, and NASDAQ by -45.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher.
• European markets are mostly higher -m Switzerland is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.198, down -21.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.359%, down -22.5 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.192%, down -9.7 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.006, down from 0.122.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.161, down from 0.173.
• VIX
  • At 13.34 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 13.23 on December 3; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on November 29 was a green candle at the all-time highs. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above %D. RSI-9 is above 65. Potential Bearish Divergence. The week was up +63.04 or +1.1%; the 5-week ATR is 165.24. Third up week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=6013.49 R1=6063.06, R2=6093.75; S1=5982.80, S2=5933.23; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A green spinning top candle at the all-time highs.  On September 19, the cash index broke above a resistance level, the high of August 30. The 161.8% extension target, around 6053.00, is achieved. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above the %D and 90. Potential Bearish Divergence. RSI-9 is above 70; above the 8-day EMA. Potential Bearish Divergence. Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 8:00 AM on November 19; at a resistance level – the previous all-time high on November 11. RSI-21 has dropped below 60 from above 75. Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways since 11:0 AM on Monday. RSI-21 is drifting down. Just above 50. At/below EMA20; above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 12:45 PM on Monday. The Bollinger Band is stable. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower Monday, December 2 in higher volume. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and FT Wilshire 5000 Index made all-time intraday and closing highs.

All but three S&P sectors – Discretionary, Technology, and Communications – closed lower.  Dollar index and Crude Oil were up. Most other commodities were down. The US Treasury yields were mixed.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) started December with record highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%. The mixed action at the index level reflected a lack of strong conviction on either side of the tape. Decliners led advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the NYSE, but advancers had an 11-to-10 lead over decliners at the Nasdaq.

[…]

This price action also drove the S&P 500 communication services (+1.5%), consumer discretionary (+1.1%), and information technology (+1.0%) sectors to close higher while the remaining eight sectors registered losses ranging from 0.1% (consumer staples) to 2.1% (utilities).

[…]

Treasuries, which can benefit from safe-haven buying during geopolitical tension, settled with losses, leaving the 10-yr yield two basis points higher at 4.20%. Oil prices, which can increase when worries about supply chain disruptions are piqued, settled little changed from Friday ($68.07/bbl, +$0.18, +0.3%). 

[…]

• Nasdaq Composite: +29.3%
• S&P 500: +26.8%
• S&P Midcap 400: +20.7%
• Russell 2000: +20.1%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +18.8%

[…]

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• November S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Final 49.7; Prior 48.5
• November ISM Manufacturing Index 48.4% (Briefing.com consensus 47.6%); Prior 46.5%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing sector activity overall continues to be weak, but showed a green shoot with the new orders index returning to expansion territory after seven straight months of contraction.
• October Construction Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior 0.1%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that residential construction activity rebounded nicely, led by single family construction.