Directional Bias for the Day:
- Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 6068.50 for a change of sentiments.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- JOLTS Job Openings (7.51M est.; prev. 7.44M) at 10:00 AM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6035.33, 6032.38, and 6003.98.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6053.58, 6063.60, and 6073.63.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 6067.25, the high at 8:45 AM and 6050.00, the low at 10:45 AM on Monday.
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 6062.00, and the index closed at 6047.15 – a spread of about +14.75 points; the futures closed at 6061.75; the fair value is +0.25.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -3.25, Dow by -10, and NASDAQ by -45.75.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed higher.
- European markets are mostly higher -m Switzerland is lower.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed.
- Precious metals are mixed.
- Industrial metals are mostly lower.
- Soft commodities are mixed.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.198, down -21.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.359%, down -22.5 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.192%, down -9.7 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.006, down from 0.122.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.161, down from 0.173.
- VIX
- At 13.34 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 18.79 on November 20; low = 13.23 on December 3; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
All but three S&P sectors – Discretionary, Technology, and Communications – closed lower. Dollar index and Crude Oil were up. Most other commodities were down. The US Treasury yields were mixed.
From Briefing.com
The S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) started December with record highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%. The mixed action at the index level reflected a lack of strong conviction on either side of the tape. Decliners led advancers by a 4-to-3 margin at the NYSE, but advancers had an 11-to-10 lead over decliners at the Nasdaq.
[…]This price action also drove the S&P 500 communication services (+1.5%), consumer discretionary (+1.1%), and information technology (+1.0%) sectors to close higher while the remaining eight sectors registered losses ranging from 0.1% (consumer staples) to 2.1% (utilities).
[…]Treasuries, which can benefit from safe-haven buying during geopolitical tension, settled with losses, leaving the 10-yr yield two basis points higher at 4.20%. Oil prices, which can increase when worries about supply chain disruptions are piqued, settled little changed from Friday ($68.07/bbl, +$0.18, +0.3%).
[…]- Nasdaq Composite: +29.3%
- S&P 500: +26.8%
- S&P Midcap 400: +20.7%
- Russell 2000: +20.1%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +18.8%
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- November S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Final 49.7; Prior 48.5
- November ISM Manufacturing Index 48.4% (Briefing.com consensus 47.6%); Prior 46.5%
- The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing sector activity overall continues to be weak, but showed a green shoot with the new orders index returning to expansion territory after seven straight months of contraction.
- October Construction Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior 0.1%
- The key takeaway from the report is that residential construction activity rebounded nicely, led by single family construction.
