Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. They have been moving sideways to up since 1:45 PM on Monday.
• Odds are for an up day with a good chance of sideways move from the pre-open level around 6030.00. Watch for a break below 6004.00 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • ISM Services PMI (53.5 est.; prev. 52.1) at 10:00 AM.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (7.73M est.; prev. 7.74M) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5960.01, 5934.29, and 5924.34.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5997.62, 6011.29, and 6021.04.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6032.25, the high at 1:30 PM on Monday, and 6004.00, the low at 3:45 PM on Monday.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6022.50, and the index closed at 5975.38 – a spread of about +47.25 points; the futures closed at 6020.50; the fair value is +2.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +14.25, Dow by +125, and NASDAQ by +20.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong was down.
• European markets are mostly higher – the U.K. is down.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.636, up +4.3 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.857%, up +8.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.285%, down -5.7 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.351, up from 0.251.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.221, up from 0.183.
• VIX
  • At 15.98 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 28.32 on December 18; low = 14.27 on December 24; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Monday, January 6 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 closed down. The small caps index traded in lower volume. The major indices closed below their opening levels, giving up most of the gains of the early session, including the opening gap, in the afternoon session. Last Thursday, the major indices bounced off support levels – their respective lows of December 20, 2024.

The dollar index was down; energy futures and metals were mixed; so were the soft commodities. The US Treasury yields was up, and the bonds closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market started the session in rally-mode, but buying faded by the close. The S&P 500 traded up as much as 1.3% at its session high before closing 0.6% higher than Friday. The Nasdaq Composite closed 1.2% higher while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.1%) closed with declines.

The 10-yr yield, which moved as low as 4.58% and as high as 4.64%, settled at 4.61%. 

• Russell 2000: +1.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +2.9% YTD
• S&P 500: +1.6% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +1.1% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Factory orders decreased 0.4% month-over-month in November (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase (from 0.2%) in October. Excluding transportation, factory orders rose 0.2% on the heels of a 0.2% increase in October. Shipments of manufactured goods edged 0.1% higher in November following a 0.2% decline in October.
• December S&P Global US Services PMI 56.8 (prior 58.5) versus final reading of 56.1 for November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0, and although the final December reading was revised down from the preliminary reading of 58.5, the final reading for December was above the final reading for November, indicating that the pace of expansion accelerated versus the prior month.