Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. They have been moving sideways to down since 3:00 PM on Tuesday.- Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 5975.00 for a change of sentiments.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (122K vs. 139K est.; prev. 146K) at 8:15 AM.
- Unemployment Claims (201K vs. 214K est. prev. 211K) at 8:30 AM.
- Final Wholesale Inventories (-0.2% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 10:00 AM.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5888.86, 5859.18, and 5829.53.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5924.01, 5947.25, and 5959.85.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5975.00, the high at 5:45 AM, and 5940.00, the low at 7:30 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5955.00, and the index closed at 5909.03 – a spread of about +46.00 points; the futures closed at 5954.25; the fair value is +0.75.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -4.25, Dow by -3, and NASDAQ by -23.25.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mixed.
- European markets are mostly lower – Italy is up.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are mostly higher.
- Soft commodities are mixed.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.687, up +9.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.919%, up +15.7 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.302%, down -4.7 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.385, up from 0.240.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.222, up from 0.173.
- VIX
- At 18.66 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 28.32 on December 18; low = 14.27 on December 24; Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, January 7 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed up in lower volume. Most major indices are making descending triangle patterns.
The dollar index was up; energy futures were mixed; metals -precious and industrials – were up; and the soft commodities were mixed. The US Treasury yields closed up, and the bonds down.
From Briefing.com
The stock market initially traded higher, but gains faded quickly as participants responded to the economic releases at 10:00 ET. Treasury yields also shot higher as stocks declined in response to a stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI reading for December and a November JOLTS – Job Openings Report that showed a noticeable increase in job openings.
The added wrinkle in the ISM Services PMI is that it also featured a notable pickup in the Prices Index (to 64.4% from 58.2%), which topped the 60.0% level for the first time since January 2024. The 10-yr yield was at 4.63% ahead of the data and settled at 4.68%, seven basis points higher than yesterday.
[…]- Nasdaq Composite: +0.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +0.8% YTD
- S&P 500: +0.5% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +0.5% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.04% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- November Trade Balance -$78.2 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$77.9 bln); Prior was revised to -$73.6 bln from -$73.8 bln
- December ISM Services 54.1% (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%); Prior 52.1%
- November JOLTS – Job Openings 8.098 mln; Prior was revised to 7.839 mln from 7.744 mln
