Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a little changed at 8:45 AM; after the Non-Farm Payroll release; futures are moving within a range since Thursday’s close.
• Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6112.00 or a break below 6086.50 for clarity.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change (143K vs. 169K est.; prev. 207K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Rate (4.0% vs. 4.1% est.; prev. 4.1%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Average Hourly Earnings (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (71.9 est.; prev. 71.1) at 10:00 AM.
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 3.3%0 at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6046.83, 6021.37, and 6007.06.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6089.89, 6114.02, and 6128.18.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6112.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and 6089.00, the low at 8:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6107.00, and the index closed at 6083.57 – a spread of about +23.50 points; the futures closed at 6106.00; the fair value is +1.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -9.75, Dow by -51 and NASDAQ by -46.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly lower – Switzerland is up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mainly higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.445, down -20.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.638%, down -23.6 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.222%, down -7.8 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.223, down from 0.346.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.193, down from 0.228.
• VIX
  • At 15.22 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly higher on Thursday, February 6 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 closed down, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher and traded sideways before dipping in the negative territory in the afternoon followed by an advance in the final hour of trading.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed higher; the industrials and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury advanced and the bonds declined. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Utilities, and Healthcare – closed higher.

From Briefing.com

The stock market traded in mixed fashion through most of the session. The major indices traded above and below their prior closing levels due to a lack of conviction from either buyers or sellers. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ultimately closed near their highs, though, thanks to a late surge of buying in some mega cap names.  

Market breadth was still negative at the close, however. Decliners led advancers by a fractional margin at the NYSE and by an 11-to-10 margin at the Nasdaq. 

The 10-yr settled two basis points higher at 4.44% and the 2-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.21%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.2% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +4.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +3.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +2.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Q4 Productivity-Prel 1.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%); Prior was revised to 2.3% from 2.2%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs-Prel 3.0% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.8%
• Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 213K); Prior was revised to 208K from 207K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.886 mln; Prior was revised to 1.850 mln from 1.858 mln