Directional Bias for the Day:
- Odds are for a sideways to an up day. Watch for a break above 6112.00 or a break below 6086.50 for clarity.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- Non-Farm Employment Change (143K vs. 169K est.; prev. 207K) at 8:30 AM.
- Unemployment Rate (4.0% vs. 4.1% est.; prev. 4.1%) at 8:30 AM.
- Average Hourly Earnings (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (71.9 est.; prev. 71.1) at 10:00 AM.
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 3.3%0 at 10:00 AM.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6046.83, 6021.37, and 6007.06.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6089.89, 6114.02, and 6128.18.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 6112.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and 6089.00, the low at 8:30 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6107.00, and the index closed at 6083.57 – a spread of about +23.50 points; the futures closed at 6106.00; the fair value is +1.00.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -9.75, Dow by -51 and NASDAQ by -46.25.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore closed up.
- European markets are mainly lower – Switzerland is up
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are mainly higher.
- Soft commodities are mixed.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.445, down -20.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.638%, down -23.6 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.222%, down -7.8 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.223, down from 0.346.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.193, down from 0.228.
- VIX
- At 15.22 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Daily |
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Previous Session
The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed higher; the industrials and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury advanced and the bonds declined. All but three S&P sectors – Energy, Utilities, and Healthcare – closed higher.
From Briefing.com
The stock market traded in mixed fashion through most of the session. The major indices traded above and below their prior closing levels due to a lack of conviction from either buyers or sellers. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ultimately closed near their highs, though, thanks to a late surge of buying in some mega cap names.
[…]Market breadth was still negative at the close, however. Decliners led advancers by a fractional margin at the NYSE and by an 11-to-10 margin at the Nasdaq.
[…]The 10-yr settled two basis points higher at 4.44% and the 2-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.21%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.2% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +4.1% YTD
- Russell 2000: +3.5% YTD
- S&P 500: +3.4% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: +2.5% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- Q4 Productivity-Prel 1.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%); Prior was revised to 2.3% from 2.2%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs-Prel 3.0% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.8%
- Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 213K); Prior was revised to 208K from 207K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.886 mln; Prior was revised to 1.850 mln from 1.858 mln
