Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are sharply lower. Futures declined more than 70 points minutes after the release of the CPI data at 8:30 AM.
• Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6038.75 for a bounce, which could be a dead-cat-bounce.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • CPI m/m (0.5% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core CPI (0.4% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • CPI y/y (3.0% vs. 2.9% est.; prev. 2.9%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 6007.06, 5990.87, and 5981.17.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6019.96, 6042.34, and 6076.28.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6038.75, the high at 8:45 AM, and 6014.00, the low at 6:00 PM on February 9.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6107.00, and the index closed at 6083.57 – a spread of about +23.50 points; the futures closed at 6106.00; the fair value is +1.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -9.75, Dow by -51 and NASDAQ by -46.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly higher – Mumbai closed down
• European markets are mixed – The UK, Spain, and Italy are up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mainly higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.532, down -0.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.750%, down -3.5 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.296%, up +8.5 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.236, down from 0.327.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.218, down from 0.247.
• VIX
  • At 17.05 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday, February 11 in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000, and FTSE Wilshire 5000 Index closed down. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened lower and made day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading. The indices then mostly drifted higher but still closed below Monday’s highs.

The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed up; the precious metals closed down; the industrials and the soft commodities mainly closed down. The US Treasury advanced and the bonds declined. All but two S&P sectors – Discretionary and Healthcare – closed higher.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a mixed showing today with major indices trading above and below prior closing levels. There wasn’t a lot of conviction on either side of the tape and the choppy action followed the ebb and flow of mega cap names.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed 0.3% higher, outperformed the S&P 500 (+0.03%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) through the entire session. 

Treasuries settled with losses. The 2-yr yield rose two basis points to 4.29% and the 10-yr yield settled four basis points higher at 4.54%. The market had a muted reaction to the $58 bln 3-yr note sale, which met strong demand.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +4.8% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +2.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.0% YTD
• S&P 500: +3.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.7% YTD