Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are a bit lower. Futures are declining from a resistance level since 8:30 AM.
  • Odds are for a choppy day. Watch for a break above 6010.75 or a break below 6993.75 for clarity.
  • Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6038.75 for a bounce, which could be a dead-cat-bounce.
  • The notable economic data due during the day:
    • CB Consumer Confidence (102.7 est.; prev. 104.1) at 10:00 AM.
    • Richmond Manufacturing Index (-3 est.; prev. -4) at 10:00 AM.
  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Side-Up
  • 6-Min: Up

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5977.83, 5962.92, and 5923.93.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6010.54, 6030.68, and 6043.65.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 6010.75, the high at 8:30 AM, and 5993.75, the low at 6:45 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 6002.25, and the index closed at 5983.25 – a spread of about +19.00 points; the futures closed at 6000.75; the fair value is +1.50.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +1.75, Dow up by +93 and NASDAQ down by -11.0.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mainly lower – Mumbai closed up.
  • European markets are higher.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are higher.
    • Industrial metals are lower.
    • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.410, down -8.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.658%, down -5.9 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.160%, down -12.5 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.250, up from 0.213.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.248, up from 0.219.
  • VIX
    • At 19.29 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 22.51 on January 27; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on Feb 21 made a Bearish Engulfing candle at the all-time highs.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D after making a Bearish Divergence.
    • RSI-9 is below 55 after making a Bearish Divergence.
  • The week was down -101.50 or -0.5%; the 5-week ATR is 132.90.
  • Third down week in the last five weeks and sixth in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=6056.37; R1=6104.19, 6195.24; S1=5965.32, S2=5917.50; S1 pivot level was breached
  • Above 10-week EMA; 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A red candle with almost no lower shadow and small upper shadow. Moving down after hitting a resistance at the all-time highs. Fallen back to the middle of a trading range between 6128.00 and 5832.00. Moving within a range between 6130.00 and 5775.00 – about five percent – since November 6, 2024.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D, and is near zero.
    • RSI-9 is below 40 and below the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
  • Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 12:00 PM on February 19. Declined to the lower bound of a trading range bounded by 6166.50 and 5936.00. A break below will have the 61.8% extension target around 5815.00 and 100% extension target around 5730.00.
    • RSI-9 is just above 20.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 9:00 AM on Monday after a short sideways move.
    • RSI-21 is below 40.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 6:45 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 6:45 AM with the price near the upper band.
  • Bias:  Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Monday, February 24 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a small gain.

The major indices opened higher but immediately turned down. They made day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading and then recovered before declining again in the last hour of trading, closing near the lows.

The dollar index closed down; the energy futures and the precious metals closed mixed; the industrial metals closed down; and the soft commodities mainly closed down. The US Treasuries declined and the bonds advanced. The S&P sectors closed mixed – six up and five down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 was 0.5% lower and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.2% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.1% higher after trading up as much as 0.6%.

[…]

Treasuries settled with gains in a continuation of safe-haven trading that began last week. The 10-yr yield dropped three basis points to 4.39% and the 2-yr yield dropped two basis points to 4.17%.

[…]
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: +1.7% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -0.1% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -0.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -2.3% YTD
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