Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher. Futures have been drifting higher since the Asian session–up more than 25 points since 9:00 PM and more than 75 points from Tuesday’s lows.
• Odds are for an up day with increased volatility. A good chance to move sideways to down from the pre-NYSE open levels around 6000.00.  Watch for a break below 5990.00 and 5977.50 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • New Home Sales (679K est.; prev. 698K) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5979.95, 5949.29, and 4943.81.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5982.73, 6010.54, and 6030.68.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6003.25, the high at 6:30 AM, and 5990.00, the low at 3:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5970.50, and the index closed at 5955.25 – a spread of about +15.25 points; the futures closed at 5970.00; the fair value is +0.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +29.50, Dow by +106 and NASDAQ by +158.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, and Singapore closed down; and Mumbai was closed.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.301, down -23.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.561%, down -19.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.096%, down -20.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.205, down from 0.236.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.260, up from 0.219.
• VIX
  • At 18.96 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 21.48 on February 25; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Tuesday, February 25 in mainly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NYSE Composite eked out a small gain. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened lower and made day’s lows by mid-day, when they turned around and recovered some of the losses. The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals and the industrial metals closed down; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries declined and the bonds advanced. The S&P sectors closed mixed – five up and six down.

From Briefing.com

There were troubles for the stock market at today’s open. The mega-cap stocks headed south and carried the major indices with them at the start.

The 2-yr note yield dropped seven basis points to 4.10% and the 10-yr note yield fell 10 basis points to 4.30%.

The predominately defensive disposition of today’s session was reflected in the outperformance of the consumer staples (+1.7%) and health care (+0.9%) sectors, the flight-to-safety in Treasuries, and the uptick in the CBOE Volatility Index (19.79, +0.81, +4.3%), which traded as high as 21.48.

The communication services (-1.5%), energy (-1.5%), information technology (-1.4%), and consumer discretionary (-0.8%) sectors were today’s biggest losers.

• DJIA: +2.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +1.3% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -0.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: -2.7% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3 in February (Briefing.com consensus 103.1) from an upwardly revised 105.3 (from 104.1) in January. This was the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
• December FHFA Housing Price Index (actual 0.4%; prior revised to 0.4% from 0.3%)
• December S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (actual 4.5%; Briefing.com consensus 4.4%; prior 4.3%)