Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher. Futures have been trending up since making a low of 5945.50 at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 60 points.
• Odds are for an up day with increased volatility. There is a good chance to move sideways to down from the pre-NYSE open levels around 6000.00.  Watch for a break below 5990.00 and 5970.75 for a change of sentiments.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Prelim GDP (2.3% vs. 2.3% est.; prev. 2.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Prelim GDP Price Index (2.4% vs. 2.2% est.; prev. 2.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (242K vs. 222K est.; prev. 220K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core Durable Goods Orders (0.0% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders (3.1% vs. 2.0% est.; prev. -2.2%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Pending Home Sales (-0.9% est.; prev. -5.5%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5965.88, 5945.71, and 5932.69.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 6009.82, 6030.68, and 6043.65.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6014.50, the high at 7:30 AM, and 5990.00, the low at 3:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5972.00, and the index closed at 5956.06 – a spread of about +16.00 points; the futures closed at 5970.75; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +40.00, Dow by +120 and NASDAQ by +182.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Seoul closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, and Singapore closed down; and Mumbai was closed.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are mixed.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.263, down -36.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.514%, down -32.5 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.082%, down -27.5 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.181, down from 0.272.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.251, up from 0.210.
• VIX
  • At 17.68 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 21.48 on February 25; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly higher on Wednesday, February 26 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower.

The major indices opened higher before mid-day. They declined in the afternoon but recouped some of the losses near the close. The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed down; the precious metals closed up; the industrial metals closed mixed; and the soft commodities closed mainly down. The US Treasuries declined and the bonds advanced. The S&P sectors closed mixed – five up and six down.

From Briefing.com

The major indices managed to claw their way back from lower levels in the closing stages of trading, but the overall tone was understandably mixed — and the indices themselves little changed — in front of NVIDIA’s market-moving earnings report after the close. The S&P 500 avoided a fifth consecutive loss by the narrowest of margins.

The 2-yr note yield dropped seven basis points to 4.10% and the 10-yr note yield fell 10 basis points to 4.30%.

The 2-yr note yield settled the day down three basis at 4.07% while the 10-yr note yield fell five basis points to 4.25%, leaving it down 30 basis points for the month.

• DJIA: +2.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +1.3% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -0.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -1.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: -2.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• New home sales decreased 10.5% month-over-month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 681,000) from an upwardly revised 734,000 (from 698,000) in December. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 1.1%.
• MBA Mortgage Applications Index -1.2% week-over-week (prior -6.6%) with refinance applications down 4% and purchase applications flat