Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher. The futures have been moving higher since 7:30 PM on Sunday–up more than 50 points. The futures have retreated from the high around 6000.00 at 7:00 AM.
• Odds are for an up day with increased volatility and a good chance of a sideways to down move from the pre-open level around 6000.00. For clarity, watch for a break above 6000.00 or a break below 5960.25
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Final Manufacturing PMI (51.6 est.; prev. 51.6) at 9:45 AM.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.6 est.; prev. 50.9) at 10:00 AM.
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices (56.2 est.; prev. 54.9) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5959.40, 5892.56, and 5865.33.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5993.6, 6009.82, and 6031.45.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 6000.50, the high at 7:15 AM, and 5960.25, the low at 3:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5964.00, and the index closed at 5954.50 – a spread of about +9.50 points; the futures closed at 5963.25; the fair value is +0.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +25.00, Dow by +127 and NASDAQ by +135.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly higher–Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, and Singapore closed up; Mumbai closed down; and Seoul was closed.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.220, down -26.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.508%, down -19.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.007%, down -26.2 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.213, down from 0.211.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.288, up from 0.220.
• VIX
  • At 19.48 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 22.40 on February 28; low = 14.90 on January 31; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, February 28 in mainly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. The major indices opened lower, then moved higher until mid-morning. Then they declined until 1:00 PM when they turned around and closed at the high for the day.

The dollar index closed up and almost all commodities closed down. Palladium was an exception. The US Treasuries yields declined and the bonds advanced. All S&P sectors closed up.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed with gains across the board thanks to a late afternoon push following an otherwise tumultuous session. The S&P 500 registered a 1.6% gain and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.6%.

The equal-weighted S&P 500 closed 1.1% higher and all 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green. The consumer discretionary (+1.8%) and technology (+1.7%) sectors, which house mega cap components, were top performers along with the financial sector (+2.1%).

The 10-yr yield dropped five basis points to 4.23%, which was 19 basis points lower this week. The 2-yr yield dropped eight basis points today to 4.00%, which was 19 basis points lower for the week.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +3.1% YTD
• S&P 500: +1.2% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -0.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.4%
• Russell 2000: -3.0% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data

• January Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$153.3 bln; Prior was revised to -$122.0 bln from -$122.1 bln
• January Adv. Retail Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to -0.5% from -0.3%
• January Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.7%; Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.5%
• January Personal Income 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%, January Personal Spending -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.7%, January PCE Prices 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%, January PCE Prices – Core 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus of 0.3%; Prior 0.2%
• February Chicago PMI 45.5 (Briefing.com consensus 41.2); Prior 39.5