Directional Bias for the Day:
S&P Futures are lower. They have been declining since 3:45 AM–down more than 60 points from the high of 5878.00.- Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. Watch for a break above 5835.75 and a break above 5847.00.
- No notable economic data is due during the day.
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5778.10, 5773.31, and 5753.03.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5810.91, 5851.33, and 5872.35.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5835.75, the high at 7:45 AM, and 5812.25, the low at 8:15 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5862.75, and the index closed at 5849.72 – a spread of about +12.00 points; the futures closed at 5860.75; the fair value is +2.00.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -37.50, Dow by -126 and NASDAQ by -158.00.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mainly lower–Shanghai was up.
- European markets are lower.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed.
- Precious metals are lower.
- Industrial metals are mainly lower.
- Soft commodities are lower.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.159, down -39.7 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.452%, down -32.5 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 3.958%, down -35.6 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.201, down from 0.242.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.293, up from 0.221.
- VIX
- At 23.73 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
- Recent high = 28.32 on December 18, 2024; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, March 3 in mainly lower volume. Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher, but turned down immediately and then mostly traded down, picking up more steam after 1:00 PM.
The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed mixed; the metals–precious and industrials–futures closed up; the soft commodities mainly closed down. The US Treasuries yields declined and the bonds advanced. All but four S&P sectors–Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and Real Estate–closed down.
From Briefing.com
The stock market had a rough showing. There was an initial push higher after Friday’s pleasing finish, but selling interest kicked in shortly after the open. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, closing below its 200-day moving average (18,368). The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 1.8% and 1.5% lower, respectively.
[…]The 10-yr yield, at 4.23% this morning, settled five basis points lower than Friday at 4.18%. The 2-yr yield dropped below 4.00%, settling two basis points lower at 3.98%.
[…]A big decline NVIDIA (NVDA 114.06, -10.86, -8.7%) related to news of a potential tightening of export restrictions on chips for China was another limiting factor today. Other mega caps also logged sizable declines, impacting index performance.
The action in NVDA led the technology sector to close 3.5% lower, along with losses in Microsoft (MSFT 388.49, -8.50, -2.1%) and Apple (AAPL 328.03, -3.81, -1.6%).
[…]- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.5% YTD
- S&P 500: -0.5% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -3.1% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -5.0%
- Russell 2000: -5.7% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data
- February S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – Final 52.7; Prior 51.6
- February ISM Manufacturing Index 50.3% (Briefing.com consensus 50.7%); Prior 50.9%
- January Construction Spending -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior 0.5%
