Directional Bias for the Day:

• 9:10 AM Update. The futures have been declining after jumping more than 50 points in the first minute following the non-farm payroll report. They are down more than 60 points since the initial jump. The outlook for the day has turned decidedly negative.
• S&P Futures jumped up after the Non-Farm Employment report at 8:30 AM. They moved between 5735.00 and 5786.50 within minutes.
• Odds are for an up day with increased volatility. The critical support levels are 5735.00, 5723.00, and 5720.00.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change (151K vs. 159K est.; prev. 125K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs. 4.0% est.; prev. 4.0%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 12:30 PM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5711.64, 5695.51, and 5686.85.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5759.48, 5810.04, and 5826.52.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5773.00, the high at 4:15 AM, and 5734.75, the low at 3:45 PM on Thursday.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5747.75, and the index closed at 5738.52 – a spread of about +9.25 points; the futures closed at 5746.25; the fair value is +1.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +5.25, Dow by +14 and NASDAQ by +39.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed lower.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are mainly lower.
  • Soft commodities are lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.276, down -23.5 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.593%, down -16.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.971%, down -31.4 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.305, up from 0.226.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.317, up from 0.244.
• VIX
  • At 25.08 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 28.32 on December 18, 2024; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, March 6 in higher volume. The major indices opened lower and then after a brief rally traded down for most of the day.

The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed mixed; the metals–precious and industrials–closed up; the soft commodities mainly closed higher. The US Treasuries yields were mixed–the shorter duration yields were down, and the longer duration yields were up.  All but two S&P sectors–Staples and Energy–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 briefly dropped below its 200-day moving average (5,730), reaching 5,711 at its session low. The index managed to close just above that key technical level, while the Nasdaq Composite (-2.6%) and Russell 2000 (-1.6%) dropped further below their respective 200-day moving averages.

Today’s close marks a 10.4% decline off the all-time high for the Nasdaq Composite reached December 16, which leaves the index in correction territory. The S&P 500 is 6.6% below its all-time high close after today’s broad retreat.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.1% YTD
• S&P 500: -2.4% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -4.9% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -6.4%
• Russell 2000: -7.3% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• January Trade Balance -$131.4 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$93.5 bln); Prior was revised to -$98.1 bln from -$98.4 bln
• Weekly Initial Claims 221K (Briefing.com consensus 234k); Prior 242K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.897 mln; Prior was revised to 1.855 mln from 1.862 mln
• Q4 Productivity-Rev. 1.5% (Briefing.com consensus 1.2%); Prior 1.2%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs – Rev. 2.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.0%); Prior 3.0%
• January Wholesale Inventories 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.5%