Morning Notes – Monday, March 10, 2025

/ 4 hours ago March 10, 2025

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower. Down more than 60 points since the start of the European session.
  • Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. The critical resistance levels are 5723.25, 5731.50, and 5757.75.
  • No notable economic data is due during the day.
  • Weekly: Correction
  • Daily: Correction
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down
  • 15-Min: Down
  • 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5666.29, 5659.42, and 5615.08.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5707.82, 5739.68, and 5783.01.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5731.50, the high at 5:45 AM, and 5673.00, the low at 11:45 AM on Friday.

Pre-Open

  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5775.00, and the index closed at 5770.20 – a spread of about +4.75 points; the futures closed at 5776.00; the fair value is -0.75.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -75.50, Dow by -460 and NASDAQ by -322.75.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed: Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore closed down; Tokyo, Sydney, and Seoul closed up.
  • European markets are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are lower.
    • Industrial metals are mainly lower.
    • Soft commodities are lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.301, down -12.9 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.600%, down -8.3 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.002%, down -20.0 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.299, up from 0.228.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.299, up from 0.253.
  • VIX
    • At 26.47 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 28.32 on December 18, 2024; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 7 was a relatively large red candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 40.
  • The week was down -184.30 or -3.1%; the 5-week ATR is 193.30.
  • Fourth down week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5807.53; R1=5948.76, 6127.33; S1=5628.96, S2=5487.73; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; At/above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
  • In Correction
Daily
  • A green Hammer like candle at/below the 200-day SMA. The index has broken below the lower bound of a trading range between 6128.00 and 5775.00–the 61.8% extension target is around 5550.00 and the 100% extension target is around 5400.00.
  • The index is just above the lows of November 4, 2024.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has crossed above %D after making a Bullish Divergence.
    • RSI-9 is just above 30 and above the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA.
  • In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 12:00 PM on February 19. Tested a support level around 5724.00, the November 4, 2024, low. Achieved the 100% extension target of a previous chart pattern around 5730.00, the 161.8% extension target is around 5600.00
    • RSI-9 is around 35 but moving up.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down in a shallow down-sloping flag.
    • RSI-21 has been moving below 40.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down 3:45 AM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 3:45 AM with the price near the lower band.
  • Bias:  Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Friday, March 7 in mainly higher volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. The early trading was volatile. The market opened flat-to-higher before declining until 11:30 AM, when it turned around and traded higher for the test of the day.

The dollar index closed down; the energy futures closed higher; the precious metals closed down; and the industrials and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. All but two S&P sectors–Discretionary and Financials Energy–closed up.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed a downbeat week with gains. The S&P 500 logged a 0.6% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.5% higher, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.7%.

[…]
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: -3.1% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -3.5% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -3.5%
  • Russell 2000: -4.1% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

  • February Nonfarm Payrolls 151K (Briefing.com consensus 159K); Prior was revised to 125K from 143K, February Nonfarm Private Payrolls 140K (Briefing.com consensus 145K); Prior was revised to 80K from 111K, February Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.5%, February Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior 4.0%, February Average Workweek 34.1 (Briefing.com consensus 34.2); Prior 34.1
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