Market Remarks

Morning Notes – Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Sunil Sharma

Directional Bias for the Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher. They are moving higher after breaking below the NYSE session low in the Asian session. Up more than 90 points from the lows of 5558.00 at 9:00 PM.
  • Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5627.50, 5615.50, and 5584.50.
  • The notable economic data due during the day.
    • NFIB Small Business Index (100.7 vs. 100.9 est.; prev. 102.8) at 6:00 AM.
    • JOLTS Job Openings (7.65M est.; prev. 7.60M) at 10:00 AM.
  • Weekly: Correction
  • Daily: Correction
  • 120-Min: Down
  • 30-Min: Down-Side
  • 15-Min: Down-Side
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.12, 5564,02, and 5535.50.
  • Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5658.88, 5673.95, and 5705.37.
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 5682.00, the high at 11:30 AM on Monday, and 5615.50, the low at 3:30 AM.

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5623.00, and the index closed at 5614.56 – a spread of about +8.50 points; the futures closed at 5620.75; the fair value is +2.25.
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +16.00, Dow by +107 and NASDAQ by +82.25.

Markets Around the World

  • Markets in the East closed mainly lower – Shanghai closed up.
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, France. and Italy are higher; the U.K., Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are lower.
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed.
    • Precious metals are lower.
    • Industrial metals are mainly lower.
    • Soft commodities are lower.
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 4.216, down -19.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
    • The 30-year is at 4.544%, down -11.4 basis points.
    • The 2-year yield is at 3.894%, down -29.1 basis points.
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.322, up from 0.225.
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.328, up from 0.248.
  • VIX
    • At 27.37 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
    • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on March 7 was a relatively large red candle with almost no upper shadow and a small lower shadow.
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D.
    • RSI-9 is below 40.
  • The week was down -184.30 or -3.1%; the 5-week ATR is 193.30.
  • Fourth down week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks
  • The weekly pivot point=5807.53; R1=5948.76, 6127.33; S1=5628.96, S2=5487.73; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached
  • Below 10-week EMA; At/above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA
  • In Correction
Daily
  • A relatively large red candle that gapped down and with no upper shadow and a lower shadow half or the real body at/below the 200-day SMA. The index has broken below the lower bound of a trading range between 6128.00 and 5775.00–the 61.8% extension target is around 5550.00 and the 100% extension target is around 5400.00.
  • The index is just below the lows of October 2024.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has crossed below %D.
    • RSI-9 is around 25 and below the 8-day EMA.
  • Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA.
  • In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Trending down since 12:00 PM on February 19. Achieved the 161.8% extension target of a broken horizontal channel around 5600.00
    • RSI-9 is above 40 and moving up.
    • Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Bouncing up from a test of the NYSE session lows at 8:30 PM.
    • RSI-21 has risen to just below 50.
    • Above EMA20 but below EMA10 of EMA50.
  • Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 11:15 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band has been expanding a bit 4:00 AM after contracting just before the European session open.
  • Bias:  Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, March 10 in mainly higher volume. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The trading was volatile. The market opened gapped down from previous open and then moved sharply down until 3:00 PM before recovering a little by the close.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed down; and the industrials and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Utilities–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market started the new week with sharp declines after Friday’s rebound. Technical factors were in play as the Nasdaq Composite (-4.0%) moved further into correction territory (i.e. a 10% decline from its high) and the S&P 500 (-2.7%) dropped below its 200-day moving average (5,734) again. It’s the first time the index closed below that key level since November 2023, marking a 8.7% decline from its all-time high.

[…]

Treasuries saw some safe-haven buying in another manifestation of growth concerns. The 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 4.21% and the 2-yr yield fell ten basis points to 3.90%. The rally in the Treasury market resulted in the lowest settlement for the 2-yr yield since early October while the 10-yr yield returned back below its 200-day moving average (4.234%).

[…]
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -6.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -9.5%
  • Russell 2000: -9.5% YTD
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