Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a little higher. Moving within a range since 9:45 AM on Tuesday between 5689.50 and 5650.75 ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference at 2:30 PM.
• Odds are for a sideways day until 2:00 PM. The volatility will increase after that. Watch for a break above 5689.50 and a break below 5650.50.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Federal Funds Rate (4.50% est.; prev. 4.50%) at 2:00 PM.
  • FOMC Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.45, 5563.85, and 5509.26.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5627.70, 5654.53, and 5674.76.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5689.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and 5657.50, the low at 3:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5672.00, and the index closed at 5614.66 – a spread of about +57.25 points; the futures closed at 5670.75; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were high – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75, Dow by +20 and NASDAQ by +49.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Mumbai, Seoul and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly lower–France and Italy are up.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mainly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.290, up +4.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.586%, up +4.7 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.048%, up +4.3 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.242, up from 0.243.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.296, down from 0.291.
• VIX
  • At 21.46 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 18 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. The markets in Europe and Asia also closed higher. The US indices opened down and then declined more in the first half hour of trading before moving sideways for the rest of the day.

The dollar index closed down; the energy and the industrial metal futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Healthcare–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed with losses across the board. The major indices settled off session lows with declines ranging from 0.6% to 1.7%.

The downside move follows two consecutive winning sessions for the the S&P 500 (-1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) and the gains haven’t been fully erased. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still 1.7% and 1.2% higher, respectively, than Thursday’s close.

Treasuries are seen as a safe-haven during geopolitical unrest, yet the 10-yr yield, which dropped three basis points to 4.28%, and the 2-yr yield, which dropped one basis point to 4.04%, made modest moves.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.7% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -5.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.4% YTD
• Russell 2000: -8.1% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• February Housing Starts 1.501 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.385 mln); Prior was revised to 1.350 mln from 1.366 mln, February Building Permits 1.456 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.450 mln); Prior was revised to 1.473 mln from 1.483 mln
• February Export Prices 0.1%; Prior 1.3%
• February Export Prices ex-ag. 0.1%; Prior 1.5%
• February Import Prices 0.4%; Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
• February Import Prices ex-oil 0.3%; Prior 0.1%
• February Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.5%, February Capacity Utilization 78.2% (Briefing.com consensus 77.7%); Prior was revised to 77.7% from 77.8%