Directional Bias for the Day:
- Odds are for a sideways day until 2:00 PM. The volatility will increase after that. Watch for a break above 5689.50 and a break below 5650.50.
- The notable economic data due during the day:
- Federal Funds Rate (4.50% est.; prev. 4.50%) at 2:00 PM.
- FOMC Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
- FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
- FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM.
|
|
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.45, 5563.85, and 5509.26.
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5627.70, 5654.53, and 5674.76.
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 5689.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and 5657.50, the low at 3:30 AM.
Pre-Open
- On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5672.00, and the index closed at 5614.66 – a spread of about +57.25 points; the futures closed at 5670.75; the fair value is +1.25.
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were high – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75, Dow by +20 and NASDAQ by +49.75.
Markets Around the World
- Markets in the East closed mixed. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Mumbai, Seoul and Singapore closed up.
- European markets are mainly lower–France and Italy are up.
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
| Up | Down |
|
|
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower.
- Precious metals are higher.
- Industrial metals are higher.
- Soft commodities are mainly higher.
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.290, up +4.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
- The 30-year is at 4.586%, up +4.7 basis points.
- The 2-year yield is at 4.048%, up +4.3 basis points.
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.242, up from 0.243.
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.296, down from 0.291.
- VIX
- At 21.46 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA.
- Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
- Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
| Weekly: |
|
Daily |
|
| 2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
|
| 30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
| 15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
|
Previous Session
The dollar index closed down; the energy and the industrial metal futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Healthcare–closed down.
From Briefing.com
The stock market closed with losses across the board. The major indices settled off session lows with declines ranging from 0.6% to 1.7%.
The downside move follows two consecutive winning sessions for the the S&P 500 (-1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) and the gains haven’t been fully erased. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still 1.7% and 1.2% higher, respectively, than Thursday’s close.
[…]Treasuries are seen as a safe-haven during geopolitical unrest, yet the 10-yr yield, which dropped three basis points to 4.28%, and the 2-yr yield, which dropped one basis point to 4.04%, made modest moves.
[…]- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.7% YTD
- S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -5.6% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -9.4% YTD
- Russell 2000: -8.1% YTD
Reviewing today’s economic data:
- February Housing Starts 1.501 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.385 mln); Prior was revised to 1.350 mln from 1.366 mln, February Building Permits 1.456 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.450 mln); Prior was revised to 1.473 mln from 1.483 mln
- February Export Prices 0.1%; Prior 1.3%
- February Export Prices ex-ag. 0.1%; Prior 1.5%
- February Import Prices 0.4%; Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
- February Import Prices ex-oil 0.3%; Prior 0.1%
- February Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.5%, February Capacity Utilization 78.2% (Briefing.com consensus 77.7%); Prior was revised to 77.7% from 77.8%
