Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
Ending the 2023 With A Bang By the end of 2022, the year-over-year change in the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was 5.9 percent and the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge which excluded food and energy, inflated by 4.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the real GDP growth was 2.6 percent.…
Ahead of the FOMC’s September 20, 2023 meeting, rate decisions, and subsequent press conference, various market indices are at critical junctures. The market is betting heavily on the Fed holding the rate at 5.50%, so the indecision shown by the indices is due to uncertainty about the larger picture. It is possible that the FOMC’s…
The S&P 500 is trending up since bottoming on October 13, 2022. It has cleared a few critical resistance levels and broken above bullish chart patterns since then. The probability is high that the upswing will go on for some time. Monthly Timeframe Fig 1. tells a good story of the S&P 500. The logarithmic…
“Bank on the trends, and don’t worry about the tremors. Keep your mind on long-term cycles and ignore the sporadic ups and downs …” — J. Paul Getty (as said to him by a successful financier)[1]J. Paul Getty, How To Be Rich Secular markets or secular cycles in an asset class are driven by strong…
Directional Bias for the Day: 9:10 AM Update. The futures have been declining after jumping more than 50 points in the first minute following the non-farm payroll report. They are down more than 60 points since the initial jump. The outlook for the day has turned decidedly negative. S&P Futures jumped up after the Non-Farm…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower but have been bouncing off a low of 5769.25 at 8:30 AM. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility and a good chance of an up move from the pre-open lows. The critical resistance levels are 5797.75, 5813.50, and 5830.75. The notable economic data…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a little higher. They have been declining since 4:45 AM–down more than 50 points from the high of 5845.00. Broke below a trading range at 6:45 AM–the 61.8% extension target around 5788.00 is achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5776.00, and the 161.8% extension target is…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are lower. They have been declining since 3:45 AM–down more than 60 points from the high of 5878.00. Odds are for a down day with increased volatility. Watch for a break above 5835.75 and a break above 5847.00. No notable economic data is due during the day. Weekly:…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. The futures have been moving higher since 7:30 PM on Sunday–up more than 50 points. The futures have retreated from the high around 6000.00 at 7:00 AM. Odds are for an up day with increased volatility and a good chance of a sideways to down move…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. The futures have been trending within a range since the NYSE close. Odds are for a sideways day with increased volatility. For clarity watch for a break above 5900.50 or a break below 5858.50. The notable economic data due during the day: Core PCE Price Index…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. Futures have been trending up since making a low of 5945.50 at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 60 points. Odds are for an up day with increased volatility. There is a good chance to move sideways to down from the pre-NYSE open levels around…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are higher. Futures have been drifting higher since the Asian session–up more than 25 points since 9:00 PM and more than 75 points from Tuesday’s lows. Odds are for an up day with increased volatility. A good chance to move sideways to down from the pre-NYSE open levels…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are a bit lower. Futures are declining from a resistance level since 8:30 AM. Odds are for a choppy day. Watch for a break above 6010.75 or a break below 6993.75 for clarity. Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6038.75 for a bounce,…
Directional Bias for the Day: S&P Futures are sharply lower. Futures declined more than 70 points minutes after the release of the CPI data at 8:30 AM. Odds are for a down day. Watch for a break above 6038.75 for a bounce, which could be a dead-cat-bounce. The notable economic data due during the day:…
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