Most U.S. major indices made all-time highs in August/September 2021. Smaller cap, Russell 2000, was the first to reach its all-time high on March 15, 2021, followed by Dow Jones Transportation Average on May 10, 2021. Dow Jones Industrial Average reached this milestone on August 16 and NASDAQ Composite on September 7. S&P 500, NYSE…
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index is a widely followed commodities index. Since its inception in 1957, the Index has been revised ten times. The last revision was in 2005 when a 4-tier grouping system replaced the system of equal weightings of its current 19 components. The new system gives Group 1 – Crude Oil, Heating Oil,…
Fed Remains in a Tough Spot The U.S. Bureau of Labor’s September 2021 Non-Farm Employment report didn’t make Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s job any easier. Back in September, at a European Central Bank forum, Chair Powell said: This is not the situation that we have faced for a very long time and it is one…
September is historically the worst month for the US equity markets. According to Stock Traders Almanac, September is ranked 12th for Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite. It is the second-worst month for Russell 2000. Since 1950, the Dow has declined 42 times or 59% in September and the S&P 500 38…
The investor optimism is quite elevated as witnessed by the all-time high levels of major indices. Investors are buying equities and selling long-dated Treasuries – the yields on 30-year US Treasury are at the highest level since mid-January 2020 after breaking above many resistance levels. Many areas of the economy are still depressed but prominent…
Equities and Commodities are Rising but Bonds and the Dollar Index are Declining The S&P 500 ($SPX) is continuing the uptrend that was started in March 2020 following the pandemic induced slide (see the second pane of Fig 1). Other major US equity indices are mostly following its lead. In April 2020, the commodities, the…
NASDAQ Is The Best Performing U.S. Index Before the COVID-19 induced market collapse, most major U.S. indices were making all-time highs (see Figure 1). Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) and S&P 500 Small Caps were two indices that reached the respective highs they made in October 2018. The February-March saw all indices sharply reach multi-year…
Gold is Shining Again Gold is on the rise. There are many fundamental factors that are favoring it. The US Dollar is soft, the Coronavirus pandemic has ignited the fears of a global economic recession and the global interest rates are low. No wonder gold is trying to reclaim its previous high levels. Technical charts…
Broadening Pattern Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are forming Broadening Pattern on weekly timeframes since January 2018. A broadening pattern is an inverse triangle bounded by two diverging trend line – one moving up and one moving down.Edwards and Magee wrote in their seminal book, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends: If the Symmetrical…
Equities Outperforming Other Asset Classes U.S. Treasury Bonds ($USB) have risen since October 2018 (see Panel 1, Chart 1) after mostly declining from a high of 176.06 in June 2016 to a low of 136.40 in October 2018. It is approaching the high, 157.94, of Q3 2017. On relative basis, $USB is under-performing the equities,…