Sell in May and Go Away is a popular stock market adage referring to its historical underperformance between May and October. However, during this period, too, the market is known to stage a rally that the Stock Trader’s Almanac calls the “summer rally,” albeit a short one and the weakest of all four seasons, within…
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index is a widely followed commodities index. Since its inception in 1957, the Index has been revised ten times. The last revision was in 2005 when a 4-tier grouping system replaced the system of equal weightings of its current 19 components. The new system gives Group 1 – Crude Oil, Heating Oil,…
Gold’s demand is highest in three years but supply is highest in seven. It bottomed in November 2016 and is on a short upswing since then. Gold ETF, GLD, is doing slightly better than SPDR S&P 500, SPY, recently. The gold miners ETF, GDX, is doing better than GLD and the gold junior miners ETF, GDXJ, is doing better than GDX.
Crude Oil has been in a free fall since the summer of 2014. A multitude of factors are at play. The supply glut due to record high production in the U.S. and Canada and global slow-down leading to reduced demand are some of the fundamental reasons behind the crude’s collapse. Technically too, the crude looks to be broken, though, it…
The expansion of the quantitative easing by the ECB has put a renewed pressure of the greenback to go up. Mind you euro is the biggest component of the dollar basket and the QE has been hugely negative for the euro. When the U.S. dollar goes up then naturally the commodities priced against it will go…
In late May we had outlined our sugar trading strategy in the summer. We entered the trade in June 4th. This year our trade has done quite well. The exit window for the trade has opened up. Today’s price action convinces us to exit the trade. For reporting purposes we will use June 27th closing…
It seems that the press conference by Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday June 18th was not that benign after all. The equity market went to bed feeling good with S&P 500 closing at all time high. The currency market went into the night whiplashed. The gold traders went to bed mostly unconcerned but woke up…
Summer months offer good trading opportunities in sugar. As of close of June 4th, our seasonal commodity trading strategy has generated long entry signal for sugar. One can establish a long position for SB – October ’14 contract at or near 0.1704 Or one can go long SGG, iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN, at…
Agricultural crops have always been strongly influenced by the vagaries of nature and weather. It is true that smaller acreages are producing bigger crops and the world has become smaller enabling easier food export-import. But, it is also true that the production, storage and consumption of agricultural products vary greatly by season. So it not surprising that the seasonal effect is visible in the price-action of…
The ninth month of the year 2012 has seen a series of quantitative easing and stimulus announcement from a sundry of major government and central banks. First off the block was the ECB, which announced a commitment to buy unlimited amount of sovereign debt of up to three years in maturity. Then China’s central government…
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